Highlights

ATFX News Update_Martin

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Tue, 19 Nov 2019, 9:57 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2019.10.14

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
US CPI (Consumer Prices Index) fell in September, just 0%. This is the first time in nearly two years. After data release, the dollar was weak. The market expected that the fed was planning another rate cut. Market interest rate futures show a 82% chance to a cut 0.25% and 26% chance to cut 0.5%.
 
China-US trade consultations successful, build up a new progress trade cooperation and built a trust improved their trade differences. China and the United States improved relations, investment atmosphere boosted, risk aversion cooled. Dow futures rose, touched 27,000 points high. The risk cooled, with gold and the Japanese yen fell. The price of silver followed the price of gold, which also fell. Crude oil prices resumed their ascent, climbing as high as $55.
 
In the market today, there were no major data releases, but China's September trade account and other China data could affect Asian currencies, such as Japanese yen. Commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and New Zealand also have indirect effects. In Europe today, Germany released the wholesale price index for September and Eurozone industrial output for August. There are no U.S. data releases, watch for comments from the U.S. President or fed officials around the close of European markets. Pay attention to the latest news of trade talks. Expectations of good news were already priced in ahead of the weekend, with Dow futures likely to have limited upside and gold and yen losses. The dollar index may stabilize for now. But, investors may use today and tomorrow to consolidate their positions ahead of Wednesday's federal reserve regional economic report, the Fed Beige book, and U.S. retail sales in September. The Fed Beige book and U.S. retail sales in September are widely expected to bring weak economic signals that could hurt the dollar.
 
[Important financial data and events]
Note: * is the degree of importance
 
10:00 China trade account **
14:00 German wholesale price index **
16:00 China new mortgage**
17:00 Eurozone industrial output **
 
Today's suggestion:
 
Euro/dollar
1.1045/1.1060 resistance
1.0105/1.0990 support
The European central bank minutes and German economic data did not surprise the market recently. On the other side of the dollar, the Euro was bullish by a drop in U.S. CPI and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts. Even if the Eurozone and Germany report shown the economy was not growth, the Euro just lose limited. The market is more focus on the Brexit negotiations and the progress, the pound rose recently, supporting the Euro rose. Be aware that if there is any negative news, the pound fall that can also affect the euro fell indirectly.
 
Pound/dollar
1.2635/1.2645 resistance
1.2555/1.2545 support
British prime minister met EU commission and making the new Brexit agreement. The new submitted agreement, open to discussion with EU commissioner without reject. At present, if the new agreement was finally rejected by the EU, may lead to a bearish the pound, the exchange rate fell sharply again. The key moment is the outcome of the European parliament meeting on Thursday and Friday. If there is bad news and the New Deal is rejected, the pound could fall at any time.
 
Australian dollar to US dollar
0.6790/0.6800 resistance
0.6755/0.6745 support
Progress in the 13th round of China and US trade talks bullish the Australian dollar. In addition, weak U.S. inflation data showed the Australian and New Zealand dollars rose. If the trade talks got further good results and the US President and administration further suspend tariffs or other good news, it is expected to see any gains in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Note that the increase may be adjusted today and may rise again after the adjustment. If the AUDUSD breaks through 0.6800 resistance, the rally could continue.
 
Dollar/yen
108.35/108.45 resistance
107.85/107.75 support
Trade talks between China and the United States made deals, investment sentiment increased, Dow futures and Nikkei index futures rose, led the USDJPY rose above 108 level. After the trade consultation, the market will adjust anytime. Dow and Nikkei futures are likely to fall after the Fed Beige book and U.S. retail sales data on Wednesday predicted a gloomy economic forecast and weak data. If the Dow and Nikkei futures fall, the dollar will follow suit against the yen. Technically, the USDJPY resistance 108.45, depending on the situation, may not succeed in breaking through.
 
U.S. dollar/ Canadian dollar
1.3250/1.3260 resistance
1.3185/1.3175 support
Crude oil prices rebounded and the dollar fell against the Canadian dollar. In addition, as the US-China negotiations progressed well, US inflation fell and the Fed was expected to cut interest rates. Technically, the USDCAD break through 1.3275 support, down to 1.31 level. Crude oil prices rose because of progress well in the  trade talks. Please attention, if crude oil prices fall, the USDCAD rise.
 
United States crude oil futures
54.55/54.65 resistance
53.15/53.05 support
Most of the U.S. September economic data weak, negative for the global economy. As the trade war between the US and Europe continues, crude oil market demand may slow down. OPEC indicated planned to cut production and the Trade talks between China and the United States made good deals ahead of the weekend, bullish the crude oil futures prices, which rebounded into the key resistance in our recommended, reached US$54.05 and US$54.55. Currently, crude oil could reach $56 if it breaks through $54.55. Adjust and focus on $53.
 
Gold
1500/1502 resistance
1482/1480 support
Dow futures rose and gold fell as trade talks made good deals. However, the US economy drop in September, with inflation and jobs data fell. Fed may cut interest rate. If US dollar returns to gold market, gold price likelihood rises. Moreover, Brexit rejected by EU, gold may have chance to rise.
 
U.S. Dow Jones industrial average futures US30
26950/27040 resistance
26660/26445 support
Trade negotiations between China and the United States are progressing well and making progress, paving the way for the future. Investment sentiment improved in part, dow futures continue to rise. Despite the success of the current sino-us trade talks, the market may have priced in expectations and started to wait and see, adjusting the market, the dow futures may break through 27,000 after the failure of correction. In addition, the U.S. beige book and retail sales data before the release of dow futures correction opportunities are higher. The downside risk to dow futures would have increased had it not been for the fed or the President.
 
BTCUSD:
8900/ 9200 resistance
8000 / 7885 support
US CPI fell in September, FOMC would consider cut Fed fund rate. This is good for crypto currencies, bullish Bitcoin and other crypto currencies Technically, the bitcoin price support at US7885 is very important. Assuming the bitcoin price as followed the gold price rebounded. The bitcoin price would test 8900 or 9200 resistance
 
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 
Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam
Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices.
 
Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. 
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