Highlights

ATFX News Update_Martin

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Fri, 15 Nov 2019, 10:37 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2019.06.04

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
Yesterday, US ISM manufacturing PMI shown slowed in May. Overall, US manufacturing and production indicators slowed in May. The market is watching ADP payrolls change and nonfarm payrolls for May tomorrow, as well as the unemployment rate and average hourly wage. Non-farm payrolls are expected to fall to 190,000, the unemployment rate to 3.7 per cent and average hourly wages to rise just 0.1 per cent, according to market estimates that all weaker than last month. The market is expected that the Fed may cut interest rates in September after its meeting on June 19th and 20th. Because of these European currencies and commodity prices have an opportunity to rise since bearish USD.
 
The key event today was the RBA monetary decision. The market expecting a 0.25% interest rate cut. If the rate cut is not larger than expected, the Australian and New Zealand dollars are expected to adjust slightly and then continue to rise. Also, keep an eye on the Eurozone unemployment rate for April and the Eurozone CPI for May. Finally, keep an eye on whether the monthly rate of U.S. factory orders in April, In contrast, the monthly rate of U.S. factory orders rose in April and the dollar index is expected to hold at 97.
 
[Important financial data and events concerned]
12:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia interest rates decision
17:00 Eurozone unemployment rate for April
17:00 Eurozone CPI for May
20:00 Fed Evans live interview
22:00 US factory orders monthly rate in April
The next day 04:30 U.S. API crude oil inventories
 
Today suggestion:
 
EURUSD 
1.1230/1.1215 support
1.1285/1.1305 resistance
Today, the Eurozone unemployment rate for April and the Eurozone CPI for May. Looking ahead to monthly factory orders for April and U.S. jobs report tomorrow. The market expects limited USD gain and has an opportunity to fall.  As long as the Eurozone unemployment rate for April and the Eurozone CPI for May today. EURUSD will have a chance to test 1.1285 resistance or 1.1305 significant resistance if Eurozone data better than expected and the US data weaken.
 
GBPUSD 
1.2680/1.2700 resistance
1.2620/1.2600 support
The risk of Brexit is expected to remain high after a parliamentary vote on the EU bill this week. Yesterday, the UK manufacturing PMI for May was released, which was slower than expected. Technically, GBPUSD significant resistance level remains at 1.27, while short-term GBPUSD resistance levels are 1.2680 and 1.2700. Of course, if the monthly rate of U.S. factory orders in April and U.S. job data tomorrow are weak. GBPUSD is expected to change direction and downward, with preliminary estimates of support at 1.2620 and 1.2600. Short term 1.2680, 1.2700 resistance.
 
AUDUSD 
0.6985/0.7015 resistance
0.6925/0.6905 support
The Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision today, the market is expected to cut 0.25%, from 1.5% to 1.25%. It is worth noting that the market has been expecting the RBA to cut interest rates for more than a month, and AUDUSD started to fall from 0.70. However, the US factory orders in April and the results of US job data coming are likely to influence the main trend in AUDUSD . If the U.S. economy, inflation and job data are weak, the chances of the Fed will be cutting interest rates, AUDUSD and NZDUSD respectively rebounding. Technically, AUDUSD is testing the three-week high 0.6980, the next resistance of 0.7015. If AUDUSD adjust, reference support 0.6925, 0.6905.
 
USDJPY 
108.55/108.75 resistance
107.50/107.20 support
While the Dow was steady, trade tensions between China and the US kept Japanese stocks down, with the dollar falling against the yen. Besides, the dollar and the yen as interest rate spreads narrowed in anticipation of future Fed rate cuts. Yesterday this analysis pointed out that the short - term focus on the dollar 108.05, 107.85 support. Only the Nikkei and Dow future rose, and USDJPY is expected to test the resistance of 108.55 and 108.75. Current estimates the USDJPY could test its low of 107.50 at the end of last year. If the support is broken, the next support is 107.20 and 106.85 respectively. Keep an eye out for how the Dow future and Nikkei affect the USDJPY trend all the time.
 
USDCAD 
1.3465/1.3485 resistance
1.3425/1.3405 support
Crude oil futures rebounded from a low of $52, gaining Canadian dollars. Also, the U.S. manufacturing PMI came in below expectations in May, adding to market expectations for a weak U.S. jobs report this week. Currently, focus on USDCAD to test support at 1.3425, 1.3405. Significant reference resistance 1.3485.
 
Us crude oil futures USOIL 
53.85/54.30 resistance
51.85/50.85 support
The trade war between China and the United States has hit investment and production confidence, and the United States has imposed tariffs on imports from Mexico. As a result, the global trade war is deadlocked. The market is looking ahead  U.S. API and EIA crude oil inventories, the price steady between $52 and $53 level. Technically, crude oil futures prices broke through multiple support levels recently. Without breaking through the resistance of 53.85 and 54.30, crude oil price trend should downward, target to $50. Note that the sharp increase in crude oil inventories in the US API and EIA tomorrow could affect the fall in crude oil futures prices, and vice versa.
 
XAUUSD 
1333/1338 resistance
1318/1313 support
The US economy into recession. The U.S. real GDP in the first quarter held only to market expectations, and U.S. manufacturing PMI and job data expectations slowed in May. With the Fed reserve expected to cut interest rates in September, Treasury prices continued to fall and the dollar lost its advantage. As this analysis pointed out last week, the market hedge funds began to flow into the gold market, the price of gold will rise significantly. Besides, if the global stock market falls, also boost gold prices. If the fundamentals improve, gold prices downward. Technically, the gold price broke through the resistance of 1323 in March, and the next resistance was referred to as 1333,1338. If the gold price falls 1318 to support, the next level of 1313 support. Believe that the market is watching the U.S. job report, gold prices maintain an upward trend.
 
U.S. Dow futures US30
24935/25015 resistance
24640/24450 support
The U.S. manufacturing PMI dropped again and job data will lower inflation, hurting U.S. corporate earnings growth and depressing the stock market. The lack of good news at the moment will hamper the market's upside. At present, the stock market is estimated to increase downward. No any positive comments to boost the stock market rebound. Assuming that without any positive comments, the stock market is watching this week's U.S. job report.
 
BTCUSD:
8550 / 8750 resistance
7550 / 7300 support
Trade tension, US data showed slow down. Expected Fed will not be intended to interest hike, the bitcoin demand increasing. Now, keeps watching the China and U.S. trade tension. If a positive outlook, bearish the price of Bitcoin. On the contrary, the Bitcoin will continue the uptrend. 
 
Enjoy trading! The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 
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