Highlights

ATFX News Update_Martin

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Fri, 19 Jul 2019, 10:57 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2019.02.01

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
The market all looking at the US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and average wage tonight.
According to data released by the US ADP job data, the results higher than the market expectations reached 213,000. Which represents that the continued expansion of employment in private sectors. The data will help raise the expectations of the non-farm payroll tonight. The dollar began to strengthen last night, ready to the important data tonight.
 
This afternoon, Switzerland announced consumer confidence index and retail sales. The Eurozone and the UK respectively announced the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMl), followed by the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPl). The market places great emphasis on Eurozone inflation data, CPl data. Then at 21:30 pm Beijing time, the United States released important data, including non-farm payroll, unemployment rate and average wages. At 23:00, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index and the lSM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) are also important. The US data performance will change the dollar value and the dollar trend may have a continuous impact on next week.
 
In addition, the US important data released tonight, the general market is relatively volatile. Due to the accelerated market speed, the market price and the transaction price provided by financial institutions may differ, so please pay attention to the relevant transaction risks. It is recommended to handle the position control 10 minutes before and after 21:30, avoid the impact of market volatility.
 
Today's suggestion:
 
EURUSD 
1.1470/1.1485 resistance
1.1420/1.1405 support
Yesterday, the analysis pointed out that it is expected that before the European opening yesterday, the euro will develop below the resistance of 1.1525, and then the performance of the euro zone data will be developed in the evening. The euro was supported at 1.450 against the dollar. Technically, the euro has adjusted over 61.8% against the US dollar, meaning the euro is going weak. If the euro zone announces that the consumer price index (CPl) is weaker than market expectations at 6 pm Beijing time, the euro will have the opportunity to test 1.1405 or below.
 
GBPUSD
1.3145/1.3160 ​​resistance
1.3055/1.3040 support
Last night, the United States announced that the number of initial jobless claims increased to 250,000. The US dollar has weakened. The GBP/USD has tested the expected resistance limit of 1.3160 ​​against the US dollar. After the European closing, the exchange rate fell. Today's market focus is on the performance of the Eurozone and UK data. In addition, the performance of the US non-farm payrolls and average wage data at night is more likely to appear in the market volatility against the US dollar. In addition, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision next Thursday, expecting the pound is going weaken.
 
USDCHF 
0.9960/0.9980 resistance
0.9905/0.9885 support
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and was negative for the dollar. Tonight, the United States announced the non-farm payrolls and average wage data for January. The market is watching the Swiss franc being consolidated. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is expected to test the key support 0.9905. Before the evening, we must pay attention to the important data performance of the Eurozone, which indirectly affects the trend of the Swiss Franc.
 
USD/JPY
109.20/109.50 resistance
108.75/108.45 support
The Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy remain unchanged, suggesting that the pace of interest rate hikes will be suspended, the dollar will weaken, and the dollar will fall against the yen. However, the Fed decided to cause the US Dow to rise, which is expected to drive the Japanese Nikkei index to rise and have the opportunity to boost the dollar against the yen. It is recommended to pay close attention to changes in global stock markets, especially the US Dow futures. Under the important data of the United States tonight, pay attention to the strength of the data and drive the dollar against the yen. At present, the Asian stock market is doing well, and it is estimated that the USD/JPY has the opportunity to test resistance.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7275/0.7295 resistance
0.7225/0.7210 support
Although the Fed’s interest rate decision has been positive for Aussie dollar. In addition, the rising in copper prices also supports the Australian dollar. However, the current Sino-US trade negotiations are not progressing well as expected. The coming US important data, non-farm payroll may also remain above 220,000. It is estimated that the Australian dollar may be adjusted against the US dollar and will continue to develop after the performance of the US data.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6920/0.6935 resistance
0.6870/0.6855 support
At present, the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations is not as expected. The US non-farm payroll may remain stable tonight, and the New Zealand dollar may be adjusted against the US dollar. Refer to the important resistance of 0.6935, support at 0.6870 and 0.6855, if there is further weakness in the support of the New Zealand dollar.
 
USD/CAD
1.3185/1.3210 resistance
1.3125/1.3105 support
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and crude oil prices remained at a high of $54, supporting the Canadian dollar. If the US job data is good, the dollar will rise and it will be negative for the Canadian dollar. But the performance of crude oil underestimate lead the Canadian dollar. Technically, at this stage, the US dollar against the Canadian dollar has the opportunity to rebound to the resistance of 1.3185 or 1.3210,  keep watching the trend may be changed anytime tonight!
 
EUR/GBP
0.8765/0.8780 resistance
0.8700/0.8675 support
Consistent with yesterday's analysis, the important data in the euro zone was announced in the afternoon. If the data is weak, the euro will fall, or the euro will fall against the pound, so stay tuned! .
 
EURCHF 
1.1405/1.1420 resistance
1.1360/1.1345 support
Consistent with yesterday's analysis, pay attention to the important data of the Eurozone in the afternoon. If the data is weak, the Euro will fall, or the Euro will fall against the Swiss Franc, keep watching the trend.
 
XAUUSD 
1322/1326 resistance
1316/1312 support
The market waits for the US job market report. From the data of US private enterprise positions recently, the US non-farm payrolls have the opportunity to maintain a population of 220,000 tonight. In addition, the average wage is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 0.2%. If the US jobs and wage levels keep increasing, the gold price adjustment may fall below the 1312 support level, and the gold price is expected to continue to fall further. Short-term important resistance is $1325 and $1,326, and the risk is high.
 
US crude oil futures:
54.90/55.30 resistance
53.35/52.85 support
Before the Fed’s interest rate decision, the price increase of crude oil was limited. The Fed said that it was patient and waiting for interest rate hikes. Crude oil prices were supported. Crude oil prices were tested at $55, but they quickly fell back and lost $54. At present, the market pays attention to the US employment population and wage level report. If the data is not outstanding, pay attention to the deep adjustment of crude oil prices.
 
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
25090/25165 resistance
24870/24790 support
The Fed decided to raise interest rates and the Dow rebounded. However, the second round of negotiations between China and the United States was not as optimistic as expected, and it needed to be reserved for the next meeting and failed to boost the investment climate. In addition, it must be noted that when the performance of individual large US companies is announced, there is a large fluctuation in the stock market, and it is recommended to be careful about trading.
 
BTCUSD:
3280  / 3100 support
3750 / 3950 resistance 
The Fed monetary policy remain unchanged, which will be positive the cryptocurrencies market. The crypto currencies seems better.  Technically, the bitcoin price keep testing the support. If the crypto currencies demand increased which support the price of bitcoin rebound, the first target maybe set at US3750.
 
Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 
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