Highlights

ATFX News Update_Martin

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Fri, 23 Aug 2019, 11:05 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2019.01.31

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
The Fed announced that it will keep interest rates unchanged and maintain the monetary policy until the economy improved. The content of the interest rate policy is removed from the gradual rate hike and revised to maintain patience and wait for a rate hike. In the post-meeting statement, Fed Chairman Powell said that the decision to keep interest rates unchanged is not to consider political pressure, mainly due to Sino-US trade negotiations and the Brexit uncertainty factors, affecting investors' investment intentions, worrying about the economy's first and second quarter economy slow down. It is expected that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged until September this year. Under the chairmanship of the Fed’s comments and the suspension of interest rate hikes, the US Dow rose 1%, and it has risen as much as 500 points. Affected by interest rate invariance factors, the US dollar fell, but the decline was limited. The Dollar Index was once low at 95.25.
 
After the Fed ends the meeting on interest rates, the market will look at the second round of Sino-US trade negotiations held two days tonight and the US January job report released on Friday night. At present, the market expects Sino-US trade negotiations to progress, and the US ADP job data was released last night. The results were higher than market expectations, reaching 213,000, surpassing market expectations of 178,000. The data is expected to stabilize the dollar and boost the dollar.
 
Today, the market waits for the unemployment rate in Germany and the Eurozone in the afternoon, in addition to the GDP of the fourth quarter of the Eurozone. At night, Canada's GDP, the number of US initial jobless claims and the US Chicago Purchasing Managers Index PMl.
 
Today's suggestion:
 
EURUSD 
1.1510/1.1525 resistance
1.1465/1.1450 support
Yesterday pointed out the Fed's interest rate and the US January job report, the overall data is expected, bearish dollars, and more euros. Technically, focus on the resistance of 1.1480 and 1.1505. As the afternoon eurozone employment data and the fourth quarter GDP expectations are lower than the previous value, the euro is negative. It is expected that before the European opening in the afternoon, the euro will develop below the resistance of 1.1525, and then the performance of the Eurozone data will be developed in the evening. It is worth paying attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US at night. If the increase is greater than market expectations, the dollar may be supported at 1.1465 or 1.1450.
 
GBPUSD
1.3145/1.3160 ​​resistance
1.3055/1.3040 support
The Fed’s decision on interest rate decision was negative for the US dollar. However, the prospect of Brexit is unclear and the pound's gains are limited. The market is concerned about the number of initial jobless claims announced by the United States tonight and the US job report for January tomorrow, with particular concern for the US non-farm payrolls and average wage data. As the market is watching, it is expected that resistance at 1.3145 and 1.3160 ​​will have an opportunity to limit the pound's gains.
 
USDCHF 
0.9950/0.9970 resistance
0.9905/0.9880 support
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged and was negative for the dollar. In addition, the performance of non-farm payroll and average wage data in the United States in January remained unsatisfactory, resulting in an increase in Swiss francs. The current market situation is still expected to be negative for the US dollar, and it is estimated that the Swiss franc is supported. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is expected to test the key support 0.9905. However, from late afternoon to evening, we must pay attention to the important data performance of the Eurozone, which indirectly affects the trend of the Swiss Franc.
 
USD/JPY
109.45/109.60 resistance
109.05/108.85 support
The Fed’s interest rate and monetary policy remain unchanged, and the statement said that the pace of interest rate hikes will be suspended, causing the dollar to weaken and the dollar to fall against the yen. However, the Fed decided to cause the US Dow to rise strongly, drive the Nikkei Index, and have the opportunity to boost the USD/JPY step by step. It is recommended to pay close attention to changes in global stock markets, especially the US Dow futures.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7270/0.7285 resistance
0.7225/0.7210 support
The Fed’s interest rate decision and monetary policy orientation have caused the Australian dollar to rise against the US dollar. The Fed maintains interest rates unchanged, boosting copper prices, which is also the reason for the rise in the Australian dollar. The next step is to look at the Sino-US trade negotiations and the US job report. Today, the Australian dollar may adjust first, and wait for the latest news.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6920/0.6945 resistance
0.6870/0.6855 support
The Fed’s monetary policy remains unchanged, and the market is watching the Sino-US trade negotiations. These fundamental factors are bullish for the New Zealand dollar. The Australian dollar rose, indirectly to the New Zealand dollar. Technically, the short-term New Zealand dollar may be adjusted before waiting for the US job report. The reference important support levels are 0.6870 and 0.6855. If it fails, it will likely change the New Zealand dollar trend.
 
USD/CAD
1.3185/1.3210 resistance
1.3125/1.3105 support
The Fed keeps interest rates unchanged and may maintain the current interest rate for a period of time. On the one hand, it supports the rise of the Canadian dollar, and the price of crude oil also benefits. The dollar extended its gains against the Canadian dollar, approaching 1.3120 support. Tonight, Canada announced GDP data for November last year, which may disappoint the market and bearish the Canadian dollar. Technically, the USD/CAD has a chance to rebound to resistance at 1.3185 or 1.3210, so stay tuned!
 
EUR/GBP
0.8765/0.8780 resistance
0.8720/0.8675 support
The Brexit was once again rejected, affecting the pound's decline. In the recent analysis, if the euro exchange rate stabilizes and regains its upward trend, the exchange rate of the pound will adjust and the euro is expected to rebound against the pound. Affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the euro rose more than the pound, making the euro rise against the pound. Important data for the Eurozone will be released in the afternoon. If the data is weak, the euro will fall, or the euro will fall against the pound. Please pay attention! .
 
EURCHF 
1.1425/1.1440 resistance
1.1400/1.1385 support
The euro rose more than the Swiss franc, and the euro continued to rise against the Swiss franc. Pay attention to the important data of the Eurozone in the afternoon. If the data is weak, the Euro will fall, or the Euro will fall against the Swiss Franc.
 
XAUUSD 
1325/1329 resistance
1314/1310 support
The Fed’s interest rate monetary policy will keep interest rates unchanged, and the pace of interest rate hikes will slow down in the future, creating a higher price for gold. The conclusions are consistent with this analysis. Next, the market waits and sees the US job report. If the gold price adjustment is likely to fall below the 1314 support, the gold price is expected to continue to fall further. The short-term important resistance of 1325 is also worthy of attention.
 
US crude oil futures:
54.90/55.30 resistance
54.05/53.85 support
Before the Fed’s interest rate decision, the price increase of crude oil was limited. The Fed said that it patience to wait for interest rate hikes, and crude oil prices were supported, breaking technical resistance 53.90 and 54.30 respectively. At present, the basic factor of crude oil is still bullish for crude oil prices, and the target is expected to be tested at 55 US dollars. However, if you lose $54, you must pay attention to the deep adjustment of crude oil prices.
 
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
25070/25165 resistance
24890/24750 support
The Fed decided to raise interest rates and the Dow rebounded. The next step is to pay attention to the upcoming round of negotiations between China and the United States, and whether it will bring a favorable atmosphere. In addition, it must be noted that when the performance of individual large US companies is announced, there is a large fluctuation in the stock market, and it is recommended to be careful about trading.
 
BTCUSD:
3280  / 3100 support
3750 / 3950 resistance 
The market expected the Fed monetary policy will remain unchanged, which will be positive the cryptocurrencies market. However, thecrypto market now is not reflected.  Technically, the bitcoin price testing the support. If the crypto currencies demand increased which support the price of bitcoin rebound, the first target maybe set at US3750.
 
Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 
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