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ATFX News Update

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Thu, 21 Feb 2019, 10:17 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2019.01.23

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
There were obstacles in Sino-US trade negotiations. After the US stock market resumed last night , the Dow fell more than 300 points. Fortunately, the performance of US companies announced better than market expectations, supporting the stock market to stabilize, and the US stock market recovered some lost ground before the close. Due to the negative sentiment of the US Dow by the Sino-US trade negotiations, the price of gold and the yen have been good. However, the China RMB, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar fell. In addition, crude oil prices fell at a high level, and the Canadian dollar followed the decline. The only time the Brexit deadline is expected to be extended, the pound is strong in major currencies.
 
In the short-term, the Bank of Japan announced the interest rate decision at 11:00 am in Beijing time. At 14:30 in the afternoon, the central bank governor Kuroda held a press conference. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged, but in the afternoon, Kuroda’s remarks have received attention. The market expects that the Bank of Japan's future monetary policy may be revised. If efforts are made to stimulate the economy, there is an opportunity to influence the yen's decline.
 
At 17:30 pm Beijing time, the Vice President of the Bank of England remarks and the UK announced industrial orders at 7 pm. The current estimates and vice president's comments have brought negatives, and the exchange rate of the pound may be adjusted. In the evening, Canada announced retail sales data, the market is expected to fall compared to October, before the results announced, it is still estimated to be negative for the Canadian dollar. In addition, US crude oil inventories will be announced tomorrow morning, and the market will watch the increase or decrease in the amount of inventories. If the result increases, there will be an opportunity to affect the decline in crude oil prices.
 
Today's suggestion:
 
EURUSD 
1.1375/1.1395 resistance
1.1350/1.1335 support
Tomorrow evening, the European Central Bank announced the results of the interest rate decision and expressed its on the future monetary policy. At that time, the speech of the ECB president will become the focus of the market, and the fluctuation of the euro. If the ECB strengthens its dovish remarks, it may cause the euro to continue falling against the dollar. At present, the overall trend of the euro remains on the sidelines, and the exchange rate is expected to remain within the 1.13 level. If the pound rises significantly, the euro may be biased towards 1.14 resistance, please pay attention to trading risks.
 
GBPUSD
1.2975/1.2995 resistance
1.2905/1.2885 support
The market expects the British Prime Minister to submit a new draft of Brexit to the British parliamentarians for discussion. It is expected to improve the deadline for Brexit and support the rise in the exchange rate of the British pound. But in the afternoon, the BOE’s vice president speech and the industrial orders announced in the evening which all may be bad for the pound. Technically, the important resistance of the pound remained at 1.30 and the important support at 1.2905 and 1.2885.
 
USDCHF 
0.9985/1.0015 resistance
0.9955/0.9930 support
The European economic data is weak, and the Swiss franc is indirectly negative. At present, the market is waiting for the European Central Bank's interest rate and monetary policy tomorrow night, and the Swiss franc is also stable. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc is now likely to test 1.00. Before the challenge of 1.0015, the technical need to see the resistance of 0.9985. In addition, we must pay attention to whether the trend of the euro will change and how to drive the Swiss franc.
 
USD/JPY
109.85/110.05 resistance
109.25/109.05 support
The US Dow fell, indirectly lowering the Nikkei. As always, the dollar fell against the yen. First of all, pay attention to the results of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision at 11:00 am Beijing time. At 14:30 pm, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda held a press conference. The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged, but in the afternoon, Kuroda’s remarks have been concerned, and the yen’s trend may change as a result of sudden policy changes. At night, attention in the US Dow and the Nikkei future. Technically, USD/JPY will have the opportunity to maintain above 109.30. If the market risk continues to cool, the stock market will rise, and the USD/JPY is expected to test 110.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7145/0.7155 resistance
0.7125/0.7115 support
Affected by Sino-US trade negotiations, the Australian dollar fell below the 0.7145 support level. Tomorrow, Australia announced employment data for the previous month. The market expects that the number of employed people will also decrease, which is negative for the Australian dollar. Technical analysis, if the Australian dollar stays below 0.7145, the Australian dollar is still going down. Only if the Australian economic data beats expectations or the Sino-US trade negotiations progress, the Australian dollar has a chance to change its trend now.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6775/0.6785 resistance
0.6715/0.6705 support
In the fourth quarter of New Zealand, CPl's annual growth rate was better than expected. After the Asian market opened, the New Zealand dollar rebounded by more than 70 points, but the 200-hour moving average resistance was stopped and the New Zealand dollar stopped. Coupled with the obstacles to Sino-US trade negotiations, it may affect the New Zealand dollar to fall again.
 
USD/CAD
1.3345/1.3365 resistance
1.3290/1.3270 support
Crude oil futures prices fell, the market expected retail sales in Canada fell as well, bad for the Canadian dollar. The current technical extension extends to 1.3330, and may even hit 38% of the rebound, to 1.3365 resistance. But if the oil price breaks through the $55 resistance, there will be a chance to pull the dollar against the Canadian dollar to 1.3235 or 1.3215. It is recommended to pay attention to the US crude oil inventory report tomorrow morning to observe the development of crude oil prices and the Canadian dollar.
 
EUR/GBP
0.8795/0.8830 resistance
0.8760/0.8745 support
The Brexit incident is waiting for progress, easing market tensions and boosting the pound. On the contrary, the Eurozone data is still weak, the ECB monetary policy tends to doves, bad for euros, and the euro fell against the pound. Technical support for the break of 0.8795 will likely test 0.8745. It is recommended to keep an eye out for big changes!
 
EURCHF 
1.1345/1.1365 resistance
1.1320/1.1300 support
The euro was fell, the Euro against the Swiss franc and continued to rebound last week. Technically, focus on the important resistance of 1.1345. If you break through the resistance, you can expect to test 1.14. Please keep an eye on the European Central Bank's monetary policy tomorrow night, whether it will change the euro position and change the trend of the euro against the Swiss franc as well.
 
XAUUSD 
1287/1289 resistance
1279/1277 support
Earlier, the Brexit risk was cooled and the price of gold was adjusted. However, Sino-US trade negotiations faced obstacles yesterday. Both China and the United States held their own opinions. Market anxiety was tense. The US Dow index and most of Asian stock markets fell, and gold prices rose. Technically, the price of gold has exceeded $1,280 and the price of gold may rise further to 1287 or 1289. If the atmosphere of negotiations between the two sides improves and global stock markets rise, gold will have a chance to go down. The current key important support is $1,277.
 
US crude oil futures:
53.55/54.05 resistance
52.10/51.50 support
The progress of Sino-US trade consultations has encountered obstacles, and the market has once again raised tension and crude oil prices have fallen. The US crude oil inventories will be released in the market tomorrow morning. As this analysis expects yesterday, the market is worried about the lack of motivation in the European and Chinese economies. When investing, it must be noted that crude oil prices may limit the increase and have the opportunity to adjust the decline.
 
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
24570/24650 resistance
24370/24250 support
Sino-US trade negotiations encountered obstacles that restricted the Chinese stock market from rising. The two sides continue to negotiate and the performance is expected to meet market targets and is expected to support the rise of the US Dow index. However, it must be noted that when the results of some individual US companies are announced, there is a large fluctuation in the stock market, and it is recommended to be careful about trading.
 
BTCUSD:
3470 / 3380  support
3750 / 3950 resistance 
Under the Fed monetary policy forecasts and the cryptocurrencies market. If the US Dow index keeping up, which is negative for the crypto market. If the Dow go down, it maybe support the crypto currencies rebound. Technically, the bitcoin price will testing the support at 3470. If rebound, the first target maybe set at 3750.
 
Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 
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