Highlights

ATFX News Update

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Fri, 15 Feb 2019, 10:03 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2019.01.16

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
The British Parliament vetoed the Brexit agreement in this morning. Before and after the vote, the British pound fell against the US dollar and once fell to 1.2668. The euro has rebounded against the pound, and the pound against the yen has reported 137.33. The gold price is high at 1294.60. Due to the British Prime Minister's plan, the draft agreement will be revised again until March 29, and even the EU government will allow the UK to extend the Brexit schedule, and the GBP exchange rate will subsequently rebound. However, it is worthy of attention. The British Labor Party has proposed turn down the British Prime Minister's government. It is estimated that the political turmoil will cause the pound to fall. In the short term, we must pay attention to the market reaction in Asia and Europe period today.
 
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the euro zone faces the Sino-US trade war and the risk of Brexit, the European economy may face challenges, and the economic recovery may be longer than expected, suggesting that the European Central Bank could not raise interest rates in 2019, and even needed Continue the second round of long-term financing plan, which is bad for the euro. In addition, yesterday, Germany announced that the annual GDP of 2018 fell by a large margin, only 1.5%. The poor number is also the reason for the decline in the euro.
 
The market is watching the Eurozone and UK inflation data CPl this afternoon. In addition, the UK announced the December retail price index. The market is looking forward to the end of the year and the peak season of Christmas consumption, driving inflation growth, which can benefit the euro and the pound. If inflation data rises, it will help support crude oil prices, but on the other hand, gold prices may fall.
 
Today's suggestion:
 
EURUSD 
1.1445/1.1465 resistance
1.1385/1.1365 support
The ECB president said that the euro zone rate hike will be delayed until the end of the year, and consider continuing the second targeted longer-term refinancing operation (TLTRO II), which is bad for the euro. In the afternoon, the euro zone announced inflation data, and if the result is better than expected, it will be more euros. In response to the refusal of the Brexit agreement, the risk of risk aversion is heating up and may be negative for the euro. It is recommended that the euro fluctuate against the dollar today, pay attention to risks!
 
GBPUSD
1.2865/1.2885 resistance
1.2675/1.2655 support
The Brexit agreement was vetoed. Although the British government will postpone the vote until the end of March, the British Prime Minister’s government was impeached by the Labour Party to submit a no-confidence motion, and the UK faces political risks. The pound may face the downside risk again. When investing in pounds and related crosses, you must pay attention to risks! At present, the high resistance of the British pound has been established. If there is no good news, the exchange rate may test the level of 1.26, or further test the 1.25 level.
 
USDCHF 
0.9845/0.9820 support
0.9905/0.9925 resistance
The euro fell, indirectly affecting the fall of the Swiss franc. Technically, the US dollar against the Swiss franc broke the 0.9790 resistance level, extending beyond the 0.9850, and the next step may be to test the previous high of 0.9925. If the fundamentals see the Brexit risk driving the pound down, there is an opportunity to indirectly affect the further fall of the Swiss franc. Pay attention to trading risks and control positions when investing.
 
USD/JPY
108.60/108.75 resistance
107.80/107.40 support
The Brexit agreement was vetoed, market risk sentiment warmed, and US economic data forecasts slowed down. Global stock markets faced downside risks. If the Nikkei index fall, it will drive the dollar to fall against the yen. Investing in the risk of Brexit, we must pay close attention to investment, especially the Nikkei and the US Dow.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7205/0.7225 resistance
0.7165/0.7150 support
Sino-US trade consultations are progressing well. The Fed may slow down the rate hike this year. It has been bullish for the Australian dollar. However, the comments made by China and the United States yesterday showed uncertainties. The Australian dollar was affected by the fall in the China RMB. Technically, the Australian dollar is expected to remain above 0.7145, but in the 0.7225 resistance range, care must be taken to adjust the risk. In addition, the risk of Brexit may affect the Australian dollar. If it falls below 0.7145 support, the overall Australian dollar may fall further.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6825/0.6845 resistance
0.6775/0.6755 support
The New Zealand dollar continues to follow the pace of the Australian dollar against the US dollar. During this period, notice that the New Zealand dollar has the opportunity to adjust. In the afternoon, the European market paid attention to the fluctuation of the British pound exchange rate, which indirectly affected the performance of the New Zealand dollar.
 
USD/CAD
1.3250/1.3235 support
1.3285/1.3305 resistance
During the adjustment period of crude oil prices, the Canadian dollar did not change much. It is recommended that Canada does not have important economic data and monetary policy comments, and must pay attention to the development of crude oil prices. In addition, pay attention to the situation in the European market in the afternoon, the UK Brexit vote news generated market volatility, the Canadian dollar may fall. Technically, the US dollar has a chance to test 1.3305 against the Canadian dollar.
 
EUR/GBP
0.8900/0.8920 resistance
0.8855/0.8830 support
The British Congress vetoed the Brexit agreement and the pound may fall again. The euro has a chance to rise against the pound. During the European trading hours in the afternoon, the market may fluctuate again, and it is recommended to pay more attention to trading risks.
 
EURCHF 
1.1285/1.1305 resistance
1.1240/1.1220 support
The euro is affected by the possibility of a delay in Brexit. In addition, the European Central Bank’s comments have caused the euro’s investment confidence to fall, and the euro may be widened against the Swiss franc. In the afternoon, the European market may fluctuate again and the risk of the euro field will increase. Focus on important support for 1.1240 and 1.1220.
 
XAUUSD 
1295/1298 resistance
1285/1282 support
The Brexit agreement was vetoed, increasing market risk and supporting the gold prices. At present, due to the orderly arrangement of Brexit, the price of gold is gently adjusted. However, in the afternoon, the European market may face more fluctuations. It is recommended that pay attention to the risks and the large fluctuations in the price of gold.
 
US crude oil futures:
52.15/52.40 resistance
51.10/50.70 support
US crude oil inventories continued to decline, but the decline was less than expected, hindering the rise in crude oil prices. In addition, the Brexit and Sino-US trade wars remain unclear, and crude oil prices are expected to be blocked at $53, now may have an opportunity to test $50.
 
US Dow Jones Industrial Index Futures US30
24135/24350 resistance
23760/23640 support
During the beginning period of US corporate results, the market keeps continued to waiting for the performance of the larger company annual report, which brought stock market volatility. The volatility may have exceeded 200-400 points up and down, recommend to pay attention to risk.
 
BTCUSD:
3450 / 3360  support
3950 / 4050 resistance 
The Fed is likely to suspend interest rate hikes. The Fed chairman said that the Fed will consider to hold interest rates, which is good for the investment climate in crypto currencies. Because it seems USD weakness. However the market transfer funds to stock markets, slightly negative for crypto market. Technically, the bitcoin price maybe testing 3450 support. Now keep watching the US do and global stock market performance, how to affected the demand of crypto currencies.
 
Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact:wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 
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