Highlights

ATFX News Update

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Thu, 21 Mar 2019, 11:40 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2018.12.21

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
After the US Federal Reserve announced the interest rate hike, the market worried that the US economy would enter a recession, and it is expected that corporate profits will be decreased. In addition, if the US government fails to pass the fiscal budget, the US government will stop operation and will increase the market risk. The news happened, the dollar fell. Last night, the US Dow (US30) had fallen more than 600 points, and stock market funds flowed into gold to stop gold by this reason. While the US Dow fell, global stock markets also fell. When the Nikkei index fell, the dollar against the yen once fell below the 111 mark. At 9 o'clock in Beijing this morning, the US House of Representatives announced the formal adoption of government financial expenditures, which is believed to help improve the market investment climate and increase the dollar.
 
Today, the market mainly focuses on the important GDP data released by the United Kingdom and the United States, especially the US GDP data. At present, the market expects that US GDP will maintain a growth of 3.5%, and the short-term is still more bullish, limiting the rise of European currencies and commodity currencies. If there is any difference in US GDP performance at 21:30 tonight, it will affect the dollar. If the US GDP results outperform, the US dollar will have a chance to rebound, and the return of funds to the US dollar will be negative for European currencies and commodity currencies, and even gold will have a chance to fall.
 
Before the Christmas holiday, the market situation is more repetitive, and before the fund manager settles at the end of the year, the position may change significantly and fluctuate. Pay attention to trading risks when investing!
 
Today's suggestion:
 
EURUSD
1.1485/1.1505 resistance
1.1420/1.1400 support
The US government's fiscal expenditure allocation may not be passed, it made the dollar weaker and boosting the European currency. However, after the final approval of the US government house, it is believed that the US dollar may be stabilized, but it is indirectly negative for the euro. Technically, the resistance of the euro is 1.1485. The market is watching the UK and US GDP results. Before the data is released, the euro is expected within the range between the proposed support and the resistance.
 
GBPUSD
1.2695/1.2715 resistance
1.2605/1.2585 support
Yesterday, the UK retail sales monthly performance rose sharply to 1.4%, and the Bank of England kept interest rates and monetary policy unchanged, in line with market expectations, to consolidate the pound. The market is concerned about the UK's GDP performance this afternoon. In addition, the US also released GDP data at night.  The market is looking for the US. GDP result. At present, the Brexit deadline is counted down. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of sterling fluctuations during the period. At the same time, it is expected that the risk of Brexit will increase. The trend of the British pound against the US dollar is still weak.
 
USDCHF
0.9895/0.9920 resistance
0.9845/0.9830 support
Before the US government did not receive funding from the US fiscal budget, the dollar weakened and the European currency strengthened, boosting the Swiss franc. However, the relevant financial expenditures have been formally passed, and the Swiss franc is negligent. Tonight, the market is looking on US GDP result, it may affect the dollar against the Swiss franc.
 
USD/JPY
111.70/111.90 resistance
111.15/110.95 support
Yesterday, many negative factors in the United States, the US Dow (US30) fell, and the Japanese Nikkei Index (JP225) fell, indirectly causing the dollar to fall against the yen. After the US stock market closed this morning, the US fiscal expenditure allocation was officially approved, which is believed to help improve the investment climate. If the US Dow or the Japanese Nikkei index rebounds, the USD/JPY will likely follow the trend and rise. Pay attention to the important technical resistance of 112.20. If you break through the resistance, the next target will focus on 112.65 and 112.85.
 
AUDUSD
0.7140/0.7160 resistance
0.7095/0.7080 support
The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy record is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while the Fed still maintains a rate hike outlook. The Australian dollar's currency spreads have broadened and the Australian dollar has fallen. The Sino-US trade war seems cool down a bit. The both sides have planned to meet the trade war again in a short period of time. Assuming it will positive for the Australian dollar. Technically concerned about 0.7160 resistance, but 0.7080 support is still very important in short term.
 
NZDUSD
0.6815/0.6835 resistance
0.6755/0.6740 support
The dollar weakened yesterday, driving the New Zealand dollar to rise. The Sino-US war seems cool down, positive New Zealand dollar. But tonight, the US announced GDP data, the market is waiting the result, it could be affected the New Zealand dollar.
 
USD/CAD
1.3520/1.3540 resistance
1.3460/1.3440 support
The crude oil prices continued to weaken, negative for the Canadian dollar, the dollar against the Canadian dollar approaching the 1.3500. At present, the Fed expects to maintain the pace of interest rate hikes and oil prices continue to weaken. It is estimated that the Canadian dollar may further weaken. The market is waiting the US GDP and expected keep at 3.5% growth, which is a bullish dollar and a negative Canadian dollar. In the transaction, it is recommended to pay attention to the changes in crude oil price performance and related to the Canadian dollar.
 
EUR/GBP
0.9060/0.9075 resistance
0.9020/0.9000 support
At present, the euro and the pound are similar, but the euro zone economy and interest rate market outlook is better than the UK, and the euro is higher against the pound. If the UK's GDP performance is weak today, the pound will fall more against the dollar, and the euro will have a chance to rise against the pound.
 
EURCHF
1.1335/1.1350 resistance
1.1290/1.1275 support
The European Central Bank will finish the LTRO program at the end of the year. Compared with the Swiss franc, the euro performed strongly and the Swiss franc was weak. The euro had a chance to further test resistance against the Swiss franc. However, the technical resistance of 1.1335 failed to continue to rise after it hit. At present, if the support is broken by 1.1275, the trend may fall further. At present, the transaction first focuses on the resistance of 1.1335.
 
XAUUSD
1262/1265 resistance
1254/1251 support
Last night, the US government did not pass the fiscal budget. US government was facing the crisis, the US dollar weakened, the US stock market fell, and gold surged. This morning, the US fiscal budget passed and reduced the risk and it could be a bearish gold. In addition, the market is waiting the results of US GDP data. If the performance is better than expected, it may be bearish of the gold. Note that gold has downside risks.
 
US crude oil futures:
48.20/48.60 resistance
46.25/45.75 support
After the Fed’s monetary policy decision, the impact continued to fluctuate oil prices. Despite the milder monetary policy outlook, the market is worried that the Fed’s interest rate hike will affect the economy and crude oil demand, and US President Trump expressed concern about rising oil prices and hit oil prices. However, in the face of various crises, crude oil prices maybe support for $45. If the US GDP is better than expected, the crude oil price outlook will rebounds and test the resistance of 48.60 US dollars, and it remains to be seen whether it can break through.
 
BTCUSD:
4300 / 4500 resistance 
3780/ 3650  support 
The US government's fiscal expenditure allocation may not be passed, making the dollar weaker and boosting the Bitcoin, the bitcoin could be rebounds. However, the US GDP result is very important. If better than previous, it could be negative the Bitcoin.
 
Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 
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