Highlights

ATFX News Update

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Fri, 22 Mar 2019, 12:22 PM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2018.12.19

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
The important focus of the market, the US FOMC interest rate meeting and the statement after the meeting. The Fed’s interest rate decision will be announced at 3 am tomorrow, then the FOMC press conference announces the statement. The interest rate future market shown about 70% of the opportunity will raise interest rates by 0.25%. The market estimates that after the Fed’s fourth rate hike this year, the pace of interest rate hikes will start to slow down next year and maybe even the first two quarters, the Fed will pause raising interest rates. Former Federal Reserve Bank of Greensban and US President Trump said that the Fed should take the market pulse to judge the interest rate, rather than just look at the economic figures. They said that the current global economic situation has slowed down noticeably, corporate profits have declined, and may affect the job market. If the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, it will hurt the economy and stock market performance, and may even crisis risk.
 
Near the end of the year, global fund managers and investment portfolios will begin to be sorted out, and some may lock in profits and adjust positions. The price trend may change or even reverse in the second half to nearly three months. It is worthy of attention, the Fed announced a post-meeting statement after the interest rate decision. If the future monetary policy content cancels the "gradual rate hike", it may imply that the pace of future interest rate hikes in future. The strength of the dollar may end and may affect the trends.
 
The market today, focuses on the afternoon of German PPl, UK CPl and retail price index. In the evening, Canada CPl and the US third quarter current account. However, it is expected that before the Fed’s interest rate decision, the importance of data will fall and the volatility will narrow. After the Fed will announce the content after the meeting, and then drive the volatility. Investors are concerned that the market will level the position at the end of the year and pay attention to unilateral trend in the short term.
 
Today's suggestion:
 
EURUSD 
1.1420/1.1440 resistance
1.1350/1.1335 support
The FOMC will announce the interest rate decision tomorrow morning, the market expecting to raise interest rates, and the US dollar has a strong chance to limit the euro's rise. Technical attention to 1.1350 support and 1.1420 resistance. It is expected that the euro will fluctuate significantly against the US dollar when the Fed announces its interest rate statement.
 
GBPUSD
1.2685/1.2705 resistance
1.2620/1.2600 support
Former Federal Reserve Chairman and US President Trump respectively called on the Fed to suspend interest rate hikes and boosted the pound. However, in the face of the FOMC meeting this may raise interest rates and the risk of Brexit, limiting the pound. The market is waiting the Fed's monetary policy and then determining the future interest rate’s trend. Technical reference can be made to 1.2705 resistance, also 1.2600 support. The Brexit deadline is 100 days, and must pay attention to the risk of volatility during the period.
 
USDCHF 
0.9965/0.9980 resistance
0.9900/0.9880 support
The euro’s performance was strong, indirectly boosting the Swiss franc. Currently, the market expects the Fed to raise interest rates and limit the decline of the US dollar against the Swiss franc. Technical support can be found in 0.9965 and 0.9880. Note that after the Fed statement, the content judges the direction of the US dollar interest rate, which indirectly affects the Swiss franc, which is worthy of attention to market volatility.
 
USD/JPY
112.65/112.85 resistance
112.25/112.05 support
Recently, the US Dow (US30) has fallen, indirectly affecting the Nikkei Index (JP225), and the USD/JPY generally follows the trend of the relevant stock market. At present, due to the decline in the stock market, the USD/JPY trend follows. If the short-term stock market continues to fall, USDJPY may be approached to 112.25 and 112.05 support.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7220/0.7240 resistance
0.7155/0.7140 support
Yesterday the Australian Federal Reserve Bank’s monetary policy record, the reference disappointed the market and the Australian dollar fell. The Fed will likely pause the pace of interest rate hikes and the Australian dollar rebounds. In addition, the Sino-US trade climate is still tense, affecting the investment climate. Coupled with the weaker performance of copper prices, the Australian dollar was limited. It may believe the resistance of the Australian dollar against the US dollar is between 0.7220 and 0.7240 before the Fed’s decision. If the Fed says it will suspend the pace of interest rate hikes, the Australian dollar has a chance to break through the resistance.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6885/0.6900 resistance
0.6835/0.6820 support
The Sino-US trade war is still tense, affecting the economic outlook of the Asia-Pacific region and indirectly negative for the New Zealand dollar. However, as the Fed has a chance to suspend the pace of interest rate hikes, the Australian dollar has a chance to rise. Technically, the New Zealand dollar accepts the influence of the Australian dollar or the renminbi, and the trend can be used as a reference. Worth paying attention to short-term 0.6835 and 0.6820 support
 
USD/CAD
1.3480/1.3500 resistance
1.3420/1.3400 support
The weaker crude oil price trend has indirectly affected the trend of the Canadian dollar. The crude oil price fell, deepening the decline of the Canadian dollar, once approaching 1.3500. At the same time, the market is waiting  the Fed’s rate hike. If the Fed maintains a gradual rate hike, the Canadian dollar may be further weak. However,the Fed has plans to stop raising interest rates then, it may stimulate the Canadian dollar to rise. Even a sharp rebound in crude oil prices could also boost the Canadian dollar.
 
EUR/GBP
0.9000/0.9020 resistance
0.8970/0.8955 support
The Brexit risk has been suspended, and the pound has performed strongly. The euro has fallen against the pound earlier. The short-term market mainly waits for the Fed's resolution, and the euro is similar to the pound. Therefore, the euro is expected to fluctuate against the pound range. If the technical support falls below 0.8955, the trend may fall further. Short-term focus on 0.9000 and 0.9020 resistance, support is focused on 0.8970 and 0.8955 support.
 
EURCHF 
1.1305/1.1320 resistance
1.1270/1.1255 support
The European Central Bank plans to end its bond-buying program at the end of the year, which is stronger than the Swiss franc. Because the SNB does not have any tendency to change its monetary policy, the Swiss franc is weaker and the euro has a chance to further test resistance against the Swiss franc. Technically concerned about the resistance of 1.1320, if the breakthrough may test the 1.1380.
 
XAUUSD 
1252/1255 resistance
1245/1242 support
The Fed’s future monetary policy stance may slow down or suspend interest rate hikes to boost gold prices. In addition, the US Dow Jones continued to be weak, and gold once tried $1,250. Gold may be consolidating at a high of 1250 before waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. Technically pay attention to the resistance of 1252 and 1255. If the Fed stops the pace of interest rate hikes, it will boost the Dow to rebound sharply. When the funds turn, it must pay attention to any risk of falling gold.
 
US crude oil futures:
49.65/50.20 resistance
46.25/45.75 support
Before the market waits for the Fed's monetary policy decision, it will affect oil price volatility. Yesterday, the market worried about the Fed’s interest rate hike, affecting the economy and crude oil demand, and US President Trump expressed concern about rising oil prices and hit oil prices. Crude oil inventories have increased sharply today and are also bearish on oil prices. If the Fed meeting statement indicates that the pace of interest rate hikes will stop, it will hopefully boost the price of oil, and the target will consider seeing $50.
 
BTCUSD:
3985 / 4120 resistance 
3420/ 3225  support 
FOMC meeting coming on tomorrow, the market expected the US Fed fund rates will be rise. Also, the market expected to pause interest rates hike later. The bitcoin have a chance to boost. But technically, after the bitcoin fell already in the last few weeks and test US3000. If the market has no more bad news in cryptocurrencies, the bitcoin could be rebounds and testthe higer resistance, such US4120.
 
Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

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