ATFX News Update_Martin

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Wed, 24 Jul 2019, 10:46 AM


ATFX Market Update - 2018.12.18

Author:   |    Publish date:

Personal opinions today:
The US FOMC meeting will end on Thursday, the market is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25%. Interest rates have risen, causing market worries that US corporate earnings have fallen and affected consumer spending in December, and investors have begun to be cautious. In addition, the Sino-US trade war is still in a tense situation, investors are concerned, and the fund manager is ready to settle before the end of the year. Last night, the US Dow fell more than 500 points. Today, the Asia-Pacific stock market opened down. The fall in the US stock market triggered the risk aversion of the market, and the prices of the yen, gold and silver generally rose.
This afternoon, Germany will announce the IFO economic sentiment index, and the market expects results will fall from last month, which may affect the performance of the euro and other European currencies. In addition, the US housing data may increase from the previous month in the evening, and in theory, the organic dollar will rise. Worth looking forward to it! Of course, the US Dow and global stock markets need to pay special attention to the development of the Asia-Pacific stock market after the market opens. Because they will continue to have a impact on the price of yen, gold and silver and crude oil.
Today's suggestion:
1.1360/1.1385 resistance
1.1315/1.1285 support
The European Central Bank decided to end the LTRO at the end of the year and will face tightening monetary policy,  which will positive the euro for the future. It don't forget  the short-term economic data factor, the economic data of the United States and the euro zone compare. 
This afternoon, the market expects European data, which may be negative for the euro. In addition, the Fed began to raise interest rates on Wednesday night, and it is expected to raise interest rates on Thursday morning. The US dollar has a chance to get better performance. Technically pay attention to the resistance of 1.1360 and 1.1385 in Euro, and pay attention to the possibility the euro’s trend reverse and go down.
1.2625/1.2650 resistance
1.2570/1.2555 support
Although the Brexit risk crisis has cooled down, the pound has eased. However, in the face of weak expectations in the Eurozone and UK data, the Fed may raise interest rates on Thursday, etc. Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on the risk of falling pounds. Technically refer to 1.2650 resistance and 1.2555 support. Fundamental factors may also affect the pound's decline and test the support below.
0.9965/0.9980 resistance
0.9915/0.9890 support
The market expects that the important economic data released by the Eurozone is weak today, which may be negative for the euro. Generally, the trend of the euro exchange rate indirectly affects the Swiss franc. If the inference is correct, the euro will fall, and there is a chance to boost the dollar against the Swiss franc. The target can refer to the resistance of 0.9965 or 0.9980.
113.00/113.20 resistance
112.45/112.25 support
The market is concerned about the Fed’s interest rate decision. According to the usual practice, the Fed may raise interest rates to make the US dollar perform strongly. However, due to the decline in the short-term US Dow (US30), which indirectly affects the decline of the Nikkei (JP225), the USD/JPY generally follows the trend of the relevant stock market. At present, due to the decline in the stock market, the dollar against the yen has fallen below the important support of 112.80. If the short-term stock market continues to fall, you can pay attention to 112.45/112.25 support.
0.7200/0.7220 resistance
0.7155/0.7140 support
The FOMC may be decided to raise interest rates during the week, and the market is waitin the final decision. In addition, the Sino-US trade climate is still tense, affecting the investment climate. Coupled with the weaker performance of copper prices, it indirectly affects the short-term Australian dollar decline. It may believe that the Australian dollar still has a chance to develop go down against the US dollar before the Fed's solution.
0.6825/0.6840 resistance
0.6775/0.6760 support
The Sino-US trade war is still tense, affecting the economic outlook of the Asia-Pacific region and indirectly negative for the New Zealand dollar. If the Australian dollar or the China renminbi rises, it is believed that it can indirectly benefit the NZD. Conversely, we must first focus on support levels 0.6775 and 0.6760.
1.3440/1.3460 resistance
1.3385/1.3365 support
The weak oil price trend has indirectly affected the trend of the Canadian dollar. If the crude oil price falls further, it may deepen the decline of the Canadian dollar. At the same time, we are waiting to see the Fed’s rate hike. If the Fed maintains a gradual rate hike, the Canadian dollar may be further weak. The US dollar against the Canadian dollar has entered the 1.3400 zone development, technically pay attention to the 1.3440 or 1.3460 resistance.
0.9000/0.9020 resistance
0.8970/0.8955 support
The Brexit risk has been suspended, and the pound has performed strongly. The euro has fallen against the pound earlier. The short-term market mainly waits for the Fed's resolution, and the euro is similar to the pound. Therefore, the euro is expected to fluctuate against the pound range. If the technical support falls below 0.8955, the trend may fall further. Focus on 0.9000 and 0.9020 resistance in the short term.
1.1290/1.1315 resistance
1.1250/1.1240 support
The European Central Bank plans to end the LTRO at the end of the year, which is euro stronger than the Swiss franc. Because the SNB does not have any tendency to change its monetary policy, the Swiss franc is weaker and the euro has a chance to further test resistance against the Swiss franc. Technically concerned about the resistance of 1.3310 and 1.1335.
1248/1252 resistance
1240/1236 support
The market estimates that the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to be bearish gold. However, the news that the Fed’s future monetary policy stance may slow down or pause will boost the gold. Coupled with the sharp fall of the US Dow, the gold price trend reversed and rebounded yesterday, and broke the key resistance of 1243, which once rose to 1248. However, gold may be adjusted at a high level, waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. Technically pay attention to the resistance of 1252. If the price of gold breaks through the resistance, it must face any possible downside risks.
US crude oil futures:
50.65/51.20 resistance
49.25/48.75 support
The market waits for the Fed's monetary policy decision to affect crude oil demand and price volatility. Yesterday, the market worried about interest rate hikes affecting the economic growth, and US President Trump remained worried about rising oil prices and hitting oil prices. At present, the technical attention to the crude oil price of 53 US dollars is a short-term important resistance range, affected by the Sino-US trade war and global interest rate trend, the estimated the crude oil price is lower than the expected resistance, and the look for appear US48.
3685 / 3820 resistance 
3220/ 3125  support 
FOMC meeting coming on tomorrow, the market expected the US Fed fund rates will be rise. The bitcoin still have a chance to downward. But technically, after the bitcoin fell already in the last few weeks and test US3000. If the market has no more bad news for cryptocurrencies, the bitcoin could be rebounds and test the first important resistance US3820.
Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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