Highlights

ATFX News Update

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Thu, 17 Jan 2019, 11:20 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2018.12.12

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
The UK fell to a 20-month low and the euro was dragged down. The Brexit vote in the United Kingdom has no voting time. The UK may face the risk of hard Brexit in March next year. The market refers to the impact and impact on the UK financial industry and financial derivatives. In addition, British Prime Minister Teresa May, who was judged by Congress, will face the risk of impeachment and downfall. All kinds of bad news, offsetting the good data of yesterday's UK job report and the weak US data, the pound fell again to below 1.2505. If the Brexit situation has not improved, the mood continues to be pessimistic, and the UK's hard Brexit situation may cause the pound to fall more than once, and test the level of 1.21 to 1.20. Of course, some bad news has already appeared, and the pound has also fallen a lot, or it is possible to adjust the rebound.
 
The market is watching the US CPl that important inflation data for November tonight. The data is currently estimated to fall from last month. It is expected to fall, and the short-term can make the dollar fall. If the result eventually falls, it may affect the future Fed interest rate decision and attitude. In addition, the number of US jobless claims and retail sales announced later was also noted.
 
It is worth noting the European Central Bank's monetary policy resolution tomorrow night. The market is watching whether the European Central Bank's monetary policy has changed, ending the bond purchase plan, and implementing the rate hike time. Please pay attention to the performance and development of the euro.
 
Today's suggestion:
 
EURUSD
1.1375/1.1390 ​​resistance
1.1300/1.1285 support
The European Central Bank will raise interest rates tomorrow evening. Earlier, the European Commission said it would start investigating the long-term financing bond purchase plan at the end of December and arrange for a rate hike to help boost the euro. Only the Brexit agreement may push the vote, affecting European currency confidence, indirectly affecting the performance of the euro, dragging down the euro. Technically, Euro resistance levels 1.1375 and 1.1390 ​​continue to pay attention. If the risk of Brexit dragged down the pound, it could cause the euro to break below the 1.1300 support level. In the evening, pay attention to the US CPl data. If it is weak as expected, the dollar will fall and it will be more euros.
 
GBPUSD
1.2545/1.2560 resistance
1.2490/1.2475 support
The pound fell to a 20-month low. The Brexit agreement may not be supported by Congress. British Prime Minister Teresa, May plans to vote. Coupled with the British Parliament, it is planned to impeach the status of prime minister and politics is not bad. The double strike caused the pound to fall. Technically, it was suggested yesterday that Pound will look down to 1.2490 or 1.2475 in the short-term, and the market expects the US inflation data, CPI and retail sales data to be released. The short-term US dollar is weak, which may boost the pound. Short-term attention to the key resistance of the resistance of 1.2545 and 1.2560.
 
USDCHF 
0.9890/0.9875 support
0.9950/0.9965 resistance
The British political atmosphere is tense, the news affects the decline of the European currency, indirectly affecting the Swiss franc. Yesterday, although the Swiss franc remained strong, it remained at 0.9895 for short-term important support and once touched 0.9870. Experience has once again proved that the euro fell, indirectly affecting the Swiss franc. The US dollar against the Swiss franc rebounded at any time, once tested the resistance of 0.9935. If the euro continues to fall, the dollar may hit 0.9950 or 0.9965 against the Swiss franc. In the next few days, US data performance is expected to fall from last month, and the US dollar has a chance to weaken!
 
USD/JPY
113.55/113.70 resistance
113.05/112.90 support
The US dollar and the Nikkei index rose, and the dollar rose further against the yen. Technically, if the US Dow falls again, the USD/JPY may stop before 114 resistance. Looking down on the low post. The market is waiting to see the performance of the important inflation data CPl in the evening. If it looks at the stock market at the same time, it will indirectly affect the development of the dollar against the yen.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7245/0.7260 resistance
0.7215/0.7200 support
Although the Australian economic data has been weak recently, it is bearish for the Australian dollar. Coupled with the tense atmosphere of Sino-US trade war, the Australian dollar is mainly bearish. But the US economy began to slow down, and the market worried that the dollar would fall. If the US inflation data performance is weak as expected tonight, it will affect the performance of the US dollar. Technically, we can refer to the short-term important resistance of 0.7245/0.7260 resistance. Investors must pay attention to the changes in inflation performance in the US in the next few days.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6905/0.6925 resistance
0.6875/0.6855 support
Although the recent economic data of Australia and New Zealand is weak, and the Sino-US trade war is tense, it is bad for the Australian dollar. But the US economy began to slow down, and the market worried that the dollar would fall. If the US inflation data performance is weak as expected tonight, it will affect the performance of the US dollar. The New Zealand dollar rose against the US dollar, technically 0.6905 and 0.6925 resistance. If the Australian dollar or the renminbi falls, it is believed to be indirect to the New Zealand dollar.
 
USD/CAD
1.3390/1.3405 resistance
1.3355/1.3340 support
The crude oil price rebounded slightly, boosting the Canadian dollar. In addition, with the weak job market and average wage performance in the United States, the market expects US inflation and retail sales to be affected, which indirectly increases the Canadian dollar. If the crude oil price rises further, it is expected that the US dollar will continue to test 1.3340 or below against the Canadian dollar.
 
EUR/GBP
0.9030/0.9005 support
0.9080/0.9105 resistance
The British Parliament debated the draft Brexit agreement originally expected to vote after the end of the debate tonight. At present, there is a large proportion of members who oppose the draft. The British Prime Minister plans to change the voting time. The news is bad for the pound. At present, the euro is stronger than the pound, and the euro has a chance to continue to rise against the pound. The key resistance of the technical upper and lower levels is 0.9080 to 0.9105. The Brexit problem made the market uneasy and paid attention to market risks.
 
EURCHF 
1.1260/1.1285 resistance
1.1230/1.1205 support
The European Central Bank will raise interest rates tomorrow night, and the central bank may plan to end the bond purchase plan, which will help boost the euro. However, after the vote of the Brexit draft was postponed, the euro weakened again. Compared with the Swiss franc, the euro against the Swiss franc fell below the important support of 1.1280, and the next level of support will be 1.1230 or 1.1205.
 
XAUUSD 
1249/1251 resistance
1243/1241 support
The British parliament debates the Brexit agreement, which may eventually fail. The market is worried that the mood will heat up and assets will flow into the gold market to hedge. Coupled with the expected weak US economic data, the Fed’s slower rate hike will help boost gold. The market is watching the release of US inflation data and retail sales data performance. If it affects the performance of the US dollar, gold may look forward to resistance of 1249 and 1251 US dollars. It is recommended to pay close attention to the risk of trading.
 
US crude oil futures:
52.85/53.20 resistance
51.75/51.35 support
The current crude oil price breakthrough US52, which is due to the sharp decrease in crude oil inventories, which boosts short-term oil prices. The market further waits to announce the US inflation data, CPl at night, and the expected decline in data will affect the performance of crude oil prices.
 
BTCUSD:
3520 / 3750 resistance 
3120/ 2985  support 
After US November non farm payroll and average wage compared last month fell, it seems supported bitcoin stables. However, the market is keep waiting the US inflation data tonight. Also, the US Fed could raise the interest rate next week. If Interest rate keep hike, the bitcoin still have a chance fall. Technically, the important resistance at US3750, looking forward to lower US3000.
 
Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

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