Highlights

ATFX News Update

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Wed, 12 Dec 2018, 11:12 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2018.12.06

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
The European Commission said it began to study the end of the long-term financing bond purchase plan, and arranged for the next year's interest rate hike plan, the news was bullish euros, had seen a rebound after 1.1310. The European Union mentioned the proposal as early as July this year, but there is no plan to make it happen. In the end, the proposal was defeated. It was only arranged to reduce the scale of debt purchase until the end of this year. Eurowill show their losses again. If the European Commission ends its to buy bonds, the ECB’s interest rate statement will be announced next week, and the rate hike schedule will be arranged next year, which is believed to help boost the euro.
 
The US stock market was closed overnight to commemorate the death of former President George W. Bush and the National Day of Mourning. However, according to the original time, the Beige Book of the US Regional Economic Report was published. The Fed’s Beige Book of Economics said that US investor confidence has fallen, tariff issues are emerging, and labor shortages have spurred inflation expectations. But when it comes to raising interest rates, the Fed has differences and fears that it will affect economic expansion. It is certain that the Fed policy meeting on December 19 will carry out the fourth rate hike this year with a target of 0.25%. In addition, the US Labor Department is about to announce the November employment market report, the market is watching, the dollar remains strong, and the US dollar index is at 97.
 
Today, the market focuses on the number of corporate layoffs in the US in November and the number of ADP jobs data. At present, the market mainly believes that the number of job amount of ADP has dropped to 195,000 from last month. As a result, the official job data called non-farm payroll will be followed on Friday. In addition, the US government announced trade accounts, lSM manufacturing purchasing managers index and factory orders. Canada's trade account and purchasing manager index is worthy of attention!
 
Today's suggestion:
 
EURUSD
1.1370/1.1395 resistance
1.1320/1.1305 support
The EU is planning to end the LTRO program and looking to the interest rate hike schedule. The news will help the euro to rise. However, there is no any good news in the Brexit debate. The market is worried that the Brexit agreement will not be passed next week, limiting the euro. Technically, 1.1320 and 1.1305 are important support areas for reference. In terms of resistance, the resistance range of 1.1370 to 1.1395 is expected. Finally, the US ADP job data and other US economic data performance tonight that will affect the trend of Euro.
 
GBPUSD
1.2745/1.2765 resistance
1.2675/1.2655 support
The market is worried that the Brexit agreement will not be passed next week, limiting the pound's gains and having a chance to fall. Short-term attention to the US ADP job data and other US economic data tonight that will affect the trend of the pound, it is worthy of attention! Technically, GBP may continue to decline, with support for 1.2675 or 1.2655. If there is any good news, the pound has the opportunity to test the key resistances such as 1.2800 and 1.2820 again. However, the current short-term resistance remains at 1.2765.
 
USDCHF
0.9955/0.9930 support
0.9990/1.0005 resistance
The EU is planning to end the LTRO program and investigate the interest rate hike schedule. The news will help the euro to rise, and indirectly benefit the Swiss franc. Short-term attention to the US ADP job data and other US economic data tonight that will be affect the dollar trend, it is worthy of attention!
 
USD/JPY
112.55/112.35 support
113.05/113.20 resistance
Although the Sino-US trade war has temporarily ceased to fire, the market has begun to feel that there is still no further solution to the negotiations in the next 90 days. The stock market fell and the dollar fell against the yen. USD/JPY has the opportunity to test 112.55 or 112.35. Short-term attention to the US ADP job data and other US economic data tonight that will affect the dollar's trend, but with both fundamental and technical, it is estimated that the dollar against the yen is expected to maintain 113.20 resistance or below.
 
AUDUSD
0.7250/0.7265 resistance
0.7215/0.7200 support
Australia's third-quarter GDP fell, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged, Sino-US trade war worries continued to uncertainty, the Australian dollar has the opportunity to further correction. The market's attention to the US ADP job data and other US economic data tonight that will affect the dollar's trend and indirectly affect the Australian dollar. Technically, you can refer to the recent 0.7200 important support.
 
NZDUSD
0.6905/0.6925 resistance
0.6860/0.6840 support
Australia’s economic performance has slowed down, and the Sino-US trade war worries have not been eliminated, indirectly affecting the New Zealand dollar. The market is currently watching the US ADP job data and other US economic data tonight, the New Zealand dollar has the opportunity to ffurther correction. Technically, the New Zealand dollar has already reached the first target of 0.6885 support, and further can be tested 0.6840 support.
 
USD/CAD
1.3355/1.3340 support
1.3415/1.3430 resistance
The Bank of Canada's interest rate is in line with market estimates to keep interest rates unchanged. The central bank has no future monetary policy orientation, and the market is expected to maintain the current level of interest rates for a long period of time, widening the spread between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar fell after the central bank announced last night. In addition, oil prices did not rise, causing the Canadian dollar to fall. The market is waiting for the performance of US ADP job data and other US economic data tonight. If the data performance disappoints the market, the Canadian dollar has a chance to rebound. The US dollar will correction against the Canadian dollar. You can test 1.3355 and 1.3340 support.
 
EUR/GBP
0.8900/0.8885 support
0.8950/0.8965 resistance
The British Parliament debated the first phase of the draft Brexit agreement and will continue next week. Finally, the British Parliament will vote on December 12. It is still bearish for the pound. If the draft is not passed, the performance of the pound will be weaker. At present, the euro is stronger than the pound, and the euro has a chance to rise against the pound. Technically key support is 0.8900 and 0.8885.
 
EURCHF
1.1325/1.1340 resistance
1.1300/1.1285 support
The market is waiting for the performance of US ADP job data and other US economic data tonight. European currencies interact with each other and no one has outstanding performance. It is recommended to pay attention to the euro against the Swiss franc in the interval.
 
XAUUSD
1243/1245 resistance
1233/1231 support
After the start of the Brexit debate, the market worried that the mood would heat up and assets flowed into the gold market to hedge. In addition, the Fed’s rate hike may slow down next year, which will help boost gold. The market is watching the US job market report, and gold has a chance to fluctuate significantly. Short-term technical attention to US1243 resistance and US1233 support within the range.
 
US crude oil futures:
53.25/53.75 resistance
52.10/51.70 support
The OPEC agreed to cut production in January next year, which will help oil prices rebound. However, US President Trang said that he hopes that the supply will maintain production levels and expect oil prices to stabilize at current levels. Eventually the oil price could not break through the resistance and fell. At present, the technology continues to focus on the resistance of 53.75, and hopes to support 51.70. If the US job data declines more than expected, the oil price may test 50 US dollars.
 
BTCUSD:
3880 / 4050 resistance 
3620/ 3505  support 
Before FOMC meetingļ¼Œthe market is waiting any US inflation and job data. If all good, the US Fed could raise the interest rate. Interest rate keep hike, the bitcoin still have a chance fall. Technically, US4050 is the updated important resistance. At this moment the price may try US3505 support again.
 
Enjoy trading!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 
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