Highlights

ATFX News Update

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Wed, 12 Dec 2018, 11:12 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2018.12.05

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:
 
Although Sino-US trade relations have eased, the two sides have grasped the extension of the 90-day truce to negotiate, but the market still feels that the truce has not changed the existing trade tariff policy and the trade confrontation between the two countries. Therefore, the market sentiment was cautious again, and the stock markets of various countries were adjusted back. The US Dow once fell by 800 points, and the market closed down 799 points from the previous day. The stock markets in Asia generally opened lower. At present, during the debate on Brexit in the UK, Congress continues to oppose the draft of the Brexit, and the number of opponents is relatively high. If the vote of the Brexit agreement will face challenges next week, and the current European currency trend is still sluggish. The market is watching the upcoming Beige Book of the US Regional Economic Report and a series of US job market reports. Although the market expects regional economic growth and job market growth to decline, but the trade-offs, the bad news of the European currency remains unchanged, and the US dollar is expected to continue to be strong in short term.
 
Today's attention to data and news includes:
Australia's third-quarter GDP annual rate and quarterly rate fell, the Australian dollar fell nearly 60 points, returning to the edge of 0.73. Although the New Zealand dollar remains high, the market outlook is still not optimistic.
 
Today, the European region announced the service industry purchasing managers index, but the market pays more attention to the afternoon euro zone retail sales data in October, and is currently expected to grow, pending results. In addition, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision in the evening, the market estimated interest rates unchanged, but after the statement may affect the Canadian dollar trend.
 
Today's suggestion:
 
EURUSD 
1.1355/1.1375 resistance
1.1320/1.1295 support
Yesterday, the Eurozone PPl data performed better than expected. It used to be bullish for the Euro, and it was finally affected by the uncertainty of Brexit. The euro fell back. At present, the market is concerned about the debate on the Brexit agreement in the British Parliament, which is more important than the performance of retail sales in the Eurozone in the afternoon. If the Eurozone data is good today, but there is no good news in the Brexit debate, it is difficult to expand the upside. Technically, 1.1320 and 1.1295 are important support areas for reference. For resistance, it is downgraded to the resistance range of 1.1355 to 1.1375.
 
GBPUSD
1.2745/1.2765 resistance
1.2675/1.2655 support
Yesterday, the draft Brexit agreement will be debated in the British Parliament. During the speech of the Bank of England Governor, it has boosted the pound, but Congress opposed the high example and eventually the pound still fell. Technically, the pound may continue to go down, looking down at 1.2675 or 1.2655. If there is good news, the pound has a chance to rebound again, but still with yesterday's expectations, 1.2800 and 1.2820 are key obstacles. Please pay attention when investing!
 
USDCHF 
0.9965/0.9950 support
0.9995/1.0015 resistance
In the face of the Brexit debate in Europe, the probability of failure to leave the European Union is high. In addition, the current market believes that the Fed will raise interest rates by 0.25% on December 19, and waiting the US Beige Book and the job market report coming. It is still possible for the US dollar against the Swiss franc to test the 1.0 in short term. Technically, short-term 0.9965 and 0.9950 are important support areas.
 
USD/JPY
112.60/112.45 support
113.15/113.35 resistance
Although the Sino-US trade war has temporarily ceased to fire, the market has begun to feel that there is still no further solution to the negotiations in the next 90 days. The stock market fell and the dollar fell against the yen. Fortunately, the US Dow fell 800 points, and the USD/JPY can still maintain 112.45 support. Technically, the USD/JPY is still performing strongly. In the next two days, the US dollar against the yen remained at 113.35 resistance or below before the release of the US Beige Book and US job data coming.
 
AUDUSD 
0.7335/0.7350 resistance
0.7295/0.7280 support
Australia's third-quarter GDP fell, the central bank's interest rate remained unchanged yesterday, and may continue to delay the rate hike, the overall negative Australian dollar. As estimated yesterday, technically it may point to 0.7300 support. The market is currently watching the US Beige Book and the job market report, and the Australian dollar has the opportunity to make further adjustments.
 
NZDUSD 
0.6940/0.6955 resistance
0.6900/0.6885 support
The Australian economy has slowed down and indirectly affected the New Zealand dollar. The market is currently watching the US Beige Book and the job market report, the New Zealand dollar has the opportunity to further adjust. Technically, the initial target 0.6885 is supported.
 
USD/CAD
1.3250/1.3235 support
1.3290/1.3310 resistance
The Bank of Canada has interest rates decisions tonight, the market estimates that interest rates will remain unchanged, and the market is more concerned about the future monetary policy orientation of the central bank. In addition, the crude oil price, which has the greatest indirect impact on the Canadian dollar, was triggered by the increase in oil prices as the OPEC oil and non-oil groups discussed capacity reductions on Thursday. However, crude oil inventories surged, once again weighed on oil prices, oil prices fell, once again caused the Canadian dollar to fall.
 
EURGBP
0.8900/0.8885 support
0.8950/0.8965 resistance
The British Parliament debated the draft Brexit agreement and finally voted on December 12th by the British Parliament. Two weeks of congressional debate, the bearish investment sentiment, the pound fell. If the draft fails to pass, the pound will be weaker. Compared with the current euro performance is stronger than the pound, the euro has a chance to rise against the pound. The technical key support is 0.8900 and 0.8885, which deserves attention.
 
EURCHF 
1.1325/1.1340 resistance
1.1300/1.1285 support
Eurozone retail sales data is expected to be better this afternoon than last month. If the euro rises, it may cause the euro to fall against the Swiss franc. It is recommended to note whether the euro against the Swiss franc is likely to break through the above support or resistance and find any further develop.
 
XAUUSD 
1241/1243 resistance
1230/1228 support
After the start of the Brexit debate, the market worried that the mood would heat up and assets flowed into the gold market to hedge. In addition, the Fed’s rate hike may slow down and is also boosting gold. However, the United States will soon announce the Beige Book of Economic Reports at 3 am tomorrow, and then waiting the job market report this week, and gold has a chance to fluctuate greatly. Gold is still expected to have downside risks.
 
US crude oil futures:
53.55/53.85 resistance
52.20/51.90 support
The OPEC agreed to cut production, but Saudi oil increased output, causing crude oil inventories to rise and oil prices to fall. In the morning, the US API crude oil inventories are expected to increase significantly, and oil prices continue to fall. The market is on the sidelines. On Thursday, the OPEC and other groups meeting, if the final conclusion agrees to jointly reduce production by more than 1.3 million barrels, is expected to support the crude oil price to rise step by step. Currently technically continue to focus on the resistance of 53.85.
 
BTCUSD:
4030 / 4250 resistance 
3620/ 3505  support 
Before FOMC meeting next week.  The market is waiting The US inflation and job data. If good, the US Fed could raise the interest rate. Interest rate keep hike, the bitcoin still have a chance fall. Technically, US4250 is the important resistance. In this moment the price may try to US3505 support again .
 
Enjoy trading!  
The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.
 

Information provided by AT Global Market, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

 

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