Highlights

ATFX News Update

Author: AFTX   |   Latest post: Tue, 18 Dec 2018, 11:22 AM

 

ATFX Market Update - 2018.10.11

Author:   |    Publish date:


Personal opinions today:

The market worried that the Sino-US trade war is heating up, the US government Treasury Department restricts foreign investment in US investment, and many measures may directly target China. Also, the US government once again pointed out that China is a currency manipulator, and the market is more worried about the deterioration of relations between the two countries. In addition, in November, the US presidential midterm election was approaching. The market worried about political changes. The funds were transferred from the stock market to the bond market. The US Dow fell over 800 points. The funds turned to the bond market and the US bond yields rose.

Global stock markets were dragged down, and the Nikkei index also fell over 800 points. Global stock markets and the Nikkei index fell, indirectly negative dollar against the yen, boosting gold. The fall in the dollar will help the flow of funds to the European currency. However, the Sino-US trade is heating up, affecting the Chinese economy, offshore renminbi, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar respectively. Finally, due to uncertain economic prospects and a sharp increase in US crude oil inventories, crude oil prices fell from US$74 to US$72, and the technical trend fell below US$73.

Market worries are Sino-US heating up, and US Treasury yields have risen to short-term highs. The market is waiting the performance of the US consumer price index and the number of US initial jobless claims tonight. At present, the US dollar is looking stronger. If the consumer price index is rising. The jobless claims will decrease, which will trigger the Fed to raise interest rates, but it will also affect the economic growth prospects and worry about the loss of corporate profits. Capital flows into the bond market, capital liquidity is reduced, and the stock market is more difficult to rebound. The dollar is less optimistic, and European currencies and gold prices are likely to bullish.

Today's suggestion:

EURUSD

1.1545/1.1560 resistance

1.1495/1.1480 support

The Brexit negotiations are progressing well, and worries are cooling down, which will help boost the euro. The market is also waiting to see the performance of US inflation data, believing that inflation expectations are heating up and curbing the euro's rise. If the US consumer price index only meets market expectations, there is a chance to bearish the dollar and make the euro rebound.

GBPUSD

1.3250/1.3270 resistance

1.3175/1.3155 support

GBPUSD broke the 1.3175 and 1.3200 resistance levels respectively last night, falling below the US stock market and worrying that the US presidential midterm election is approaching. More importantly, the market believes that the Brexit negotiations are expected to receive EU support through the Irish border trade agreement to ease the UK's strong Brexit risk. If the dollar continues to weaken, it will help boost the pound. But pay attention to the impact of important data on the US consumer price index tonight, making the pounds fluctuate.

USDCHF

0.9915/0.9930 resistance

0.9855/0.9835 support

The dollar fell and the euro rose, indirectly boosting the Swiss franc. If the euro continues to rise against the dollar, the Lido Swiss Franc. But pay attention to the impact of important data on the US consumer price index tonight, the dollar fluctuated against the Swiss franc.

USD/JPY

112.35/112.55 resistance

111.85/111.65 support

The Nikkei index continued to fall. It was down by the US Dow last night and became one of the important factors for the dollar to fall against the yen. In addition, after the quarterly settlement in Japan, the return of funds to Japan will help the yen rise. At present, if the global stock market continues to fall, the USD/JPY trend has the opportunity to test the 111 level.

AUDUSD

0.7085/0.7205 resistance

0.7050/0.7035 support

The recent Australian economic indicators are not good, the Australian consumer confidence index fell, and the Australian dollar was negative. With the tight trade relations between China and the United States, the market is worried about affecting Sino-Australian trade and the economy is damaged. And most importantly, before the important data of the US consumer price index tonight, the Australian dollar was downward. If the US data does not increase, it is expected to boost the Australian dollar.

NZDUSD

0.6475/0.6490 resistance

0.6445/0.6430 support

The recent economic indicators of Australia are not good, the economic prospects of Australia and New Zealand are uncertain, and the Australian dollar is negative. With Sino-US trade tensions, the market is worried about the impact of Sino-Australian trade, economic damage, and dragging down the New Zealand economy. Technically, the trend of the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar is also unclear with the trend of the Australian dollar against the US dollar, paying attention to downside risks. But before the important data of the US consumer price index tonight, the New Zealand dollar was downward risk. If the US data does not show an increase, it is expected to boost the New Zealand dollar.

USD/CAD

1.2950/1.2965 resistance

1.2905/1.2885 support

Falling oil prices hurt Canadian crude oil export earnings, causing the Canadian dollar to fall. In addition, the US crude oil inventories increased sharply, the oil price trend was unclear, and the US dollar rose to 1.30 against the Canadian dollar. At present, we are still waiting to see the impact of important data on the US consumer price index tonight, and the US dollar is volatile against the Canadian dollar.

EUR/GBP

0.8745/0.8765 resistance

0.8715/0.8695 support

The Brexit negotiations are progressing well, boosting the pound again, and the pound is strong, making the euro continue to fall against the pound. If there is good news in the Eurozone, or if there is a bad situation in the UK, it will boost the EUR/GBP, otherwise the EUR/GBP trend will continue to decline.

EURCHF

1.1420/1.1435 resistance

1.1380/1.1375 support

Technically, the euro continued to adjust to the downside against the Swiss franc. Fundamentally, the euro is weaker than the Swiss franc. If the euro has a chance to rise against the dollar, the Swiss franc has a limited increase and the euro has a chance to rise against the Swiss franc. If the two sides go up and down simultaneously, the euro will only fluctuate in the range against the Swiss franc.

XAUUSD

1195/1197 resistance

1187/1185 support

The US stock market fell and it boosted gold. However, the yield of US Treasury bonds continued to rise, and funds flowed to US Treasury bonds, which was bad for gold. In addition, the market is watching the impact of important data on the US consumer price index tonight to curb gold gains. If the US data does not see any increase, it is expected to boost gold, and the stock market continues to fall, gold has the opportunity to explore the resistance of 1,200 US dollars.

US crude oil futures:

73.75/74.05 resistance

72.05/71.75 support

Uncertainty in US politics and Sino-US trade and a sharp increase in crude oil inventories have caused oil prices to fall. If the growth rate of the US ElA increases higher than expected tonight, the oil price will further test the low position. But pay attention to the increase in seasonal demand, crude oil prices still have reason to rebound.

BTCUSD:

6330 / 6450 resistance

5980 /5860 support

US 10 year treasury bond yield keeps 7 year record high, capital funds transfer to bond . Cryptocurrency have a downside risk. Now, the market observe the performance of the US CPI tomorrow, the bitcoin keep downward. 

Hope you enjoy and have happy trade!  The content is for reference only. Please do ensure that you understand the risk.

 

Information provided by ATFX, Chief Analyst of Asia Pacific: Martin Lam

Registered Australian Accountant/ Certified Professional Manager / Certified Financial
Advisor Experienced Investor / Media Market Commentator Martin Lam has Over 17 years’ experience in global investment market. Familiar with the worldwide stock indices, precious metals such Gold and Silver, Crude oil and Forex. He operated Martin Currency Trading Company and had partnership with a number of well-known international financial corporations and institutions. Before he join ATFX, he was TeleTrade Greater China development and Sales Director. Mr. Lam attends Hong Kong Now TV and China CCTV finance channel once a week. He also had regularly invited by different media, such as DBC Digital Financial Channel, Hong Kong Economic Times, The Standard, Ming Pao to share his experience to trade in Forex, Precious metals, Crude oil and worldwide stock indices. 
Contact: cs.gm@atfx.com or wechat: ATFX_China

Legal: ATFX is a trading name of AT Global Markets Limited (ATGM, registration number 24226 IBC 2017). ATGM is an International Business Company in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Registered address is : the Financial Services Centre, Stoney Ground, Kingstown, St.Vincent & the Grenadines.

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