| SGX : Noble || || NOBLE GROUP LIMITED |
|Last Price ||Today's Change || Day's Range || Trading Volume |
|0.255 || +0.025 (10.87%) || 0.23 - 0.255 || 260,752,300 |
|Avg Volume (4 weeks):||182,148,799|
|4 Weeks Range:||0.17 - 0.255|
|52 Weeks Range:||0.112 - 0.495|
|Average Price Target: || 0.19 |
|Price Target Upside/Downside: || -0.065 |
kenlfo 0.95! Should have some good news?
inphyy Test water....wait till closing bell
alexyap what's with the rise?
kenlfo 1.015! uptrending....still have support above 1.00
kenlfo heard that CEO and Director buy back their shares?
alexyap didnt get the news. let's wait and see the quarterly report. Hopefully there is improvement.
inphyy Closing bell 0.985
kenlfo good! is uptrending
inphyy Noble Group - INCREASE IN SHAREHOLDING IN RESOURCE GENERATION LIMITED
Noble Group Limited (the “Company”) refers to the announcement dated 31 July 2013 and wishes to announce that on 21 October 2013, the Company (through its subsidiary,Barsington Limited) has subscribed for 59,632,506 additional shares in Resource Generation Limited (“Resource Generation”) under a shortfall placement undertaken in connection with Resource Generation’s entitlement offer. The Company’s shareholding in Resource Generation has increased from 12.85% to 17.97%.
The consideration is approximately A$13.1 million and was satisfied in cash, and funded from internal resources.
The above transaction does not amount to a discloseable transaction for the purposes of Chapter 10 of the SGX-ST Listing Manual.
Noble Group Limited
22 October 2013
kenlfo why drops so much for today?
clarence_yeo2003 dunnoe but I know is a healthy correction of 10-15%.
inphyy Praise the Lord of the Ring (─‿‿─)
inphyy Noble's 3Q profit drops 70% on Yancoal non-cash loss
kenlfo is a bad news, that's why today drops so much
inphyy So hard to climb from cent to dollar...will hold strong at 1
kenlfo yalor, climb so hard for so many days, the gain dissapear just 1 day
kenlfo people are throwing shares?
kenlfo The Board wishes to advise that Noble Group is currently
engaged in discussions with a consortium in rel
Group’s Agriculture business.
alexyap according to the agenda in their next AGM, are they issuing bonus issue or right issue?
kenlfo COFCO and Noble Announce Creation of an Agribusiness Joint Venture through COFCO's acquisition of 51% of Noble Agri
kenlfo Noble Group Limited (the “Company”) wishes to announce that on 8 April 2014, the
Company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Noble Chartering Limited, acquired a 65%
shareholding interest in Panacore Investments Limited (“Panacore”), a company
incorporated in Mauritius, for an aggregate consideration of approximately US$11.8 million
kenlfo Special General Meeting of Noble Group Limited (“Company”) will be held at Ballrooms 1 & 2, Amara Singapore Hotel, 165 Tanjong Pagar Road, Singapore 088539 on 5 June 2014 at 10.00 a.m. (Singapore time)
ed88ks No comment on this?
kenlfo up with high volume...any news?
tradax S&P Just Warned Asia’s Largest Commodity Trader It May Be Junked
tradax S&P Just Warned Asia’s Largest Commodity Trader It May Be Junked
Posted on November 23, 2015 by The Trade, Shipping and Finance Wizard
[S&P HAS GIVEN NOBLE A DEADLINE OF THREE MONTHS IN WHICH TO RAISE A LOT OF CAPITAL, OR ELSE BE DOWNGRADED TO JUNK]
[NOBLE GROUP’S REALIZATION OF GAINS ON COMMODITY CONTRACTS AND DERIVATIVES AND FINANCIAL REPORTING DURING Q3 ARE CONTRARY TO THE LOGIC].
NOBLE GROUP IS IN A SPECIAL CLASS AND CANNOT BE COMPARED TO PEERS.
The name Noble Group should be familiar to frequent readers from our August 18 report on the company, but to those who are unfamiliar here is the quick summary: because it is Asia’s largest commodity trader, Noble can be better thought of as Asia’s Glencore.
As a further reminder, on August 18 we said that “we expect a big announcement of S&P on Noble Group later this week” as a result of the ongoing deterioration in the company’s fundamentals as well as various market-traded securities, notably its stocks and default swaps.
As usual, S&P was late, but just over three months later, the rating agency finally came out with the catalyst we have been expecting when moments ago it said that it had “placed its ‘BBB-‘ long-term corporate credit rating on Hong Kong-based supply-chain management service provider Noble Group Ltd. and the ‘BBB-‘ issue rating on the company’s senior unsecured notes on CreditWatch with negative implications.”In other words, Asia’s Glencore is about to be junked.
Here’s why, from S&P:
The CreditWatch action reflects our view that Noble’s liquidity and financial leverage have weakened and breached levels that we consider appropriate for the current rating. However, management’s commitment to raise new capital could support the company’s credit profile.
Noble’s liquidity deteriorated in the third quarter of 2015 following a 27% decline in the company’s net available readily marketable inventory to US$1.48 billion as of September 2015 from US$2.0 billion in June 2015.
The deterioration was largely related to the fall in commodities prices. The company’s available and undrawn committed credit lines fell almost 50% during the period to about US$1 billion. The company’s cash sources are less than 1.5x cash uses as of September 2015, below the threshold for a “strong” liquidity assessment.
Worse, S&P has given Noble a deadline of three months in which to raise a lot of capital, or else be downgraded to junk, a rating which could effectively end its trading business, and ultimately could lead to a liquidation of the entire company.
tradax With Noble Group, Nothing is created, Nothing is lost, everything is transformed https://jacquessimon506.wordpress.com/2015/12/16/with-noble-group-nothing-is-created-nothing-is-lost/
tradax COMMENTS ON THE PROJECTED AGRI STAKE SALE
December 17, 2015 · by Iceberg Research · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment
During the Q3 conference call in November, Mr. Alireza, Noble’s CEO, said: “We are committed to our stake on Noble Agri, we are a 49% shareholder and we are working with our partners to enhance and improve the performance of it.” One month later, Noble announced they want to sell their stake in Agri. Desperate times call for desperate measures. The threat of a downgrade by the credit agencies is only one reason. We believe the more pressing reason is simply Noble’s liquidity position. The guarantee to Agri is also probably not accepted anymore by many banks.
COFCO would buy 49% of Agri for $700-$750m. This compares with the $1.46b that COFCO already paid for 51% of Agri. A simple conclusion would be that the valuation of Agri collapsed by half in one year. For COFCO, it is easier to properly value Agri now that Noble is not in charge anymore. However, an important reason behind this drop is that the accounting game that Noble played one year ago is now fully exposed. The real price for the 51% majority stake has never been $1.46b. This amount was the cash exchanged between COFCO and Noble but the net price included subsidies that Noble had to provide to Agri. Noble has always refused to give the total amount of these subsidies. They have always refused to release the Agri sale agreement. This document was only available for inspection at Noble’s office in Bermuda, in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, far from the analysts’ eyes. If Noble had an office on the moon, they would have probably put it there.
This accounting illusion allowed Noble to avoid an impairment for the remaining 49% stake. Now that Noble has to sell its entire holding in Agri, the trick is exposed. In our first report, we conservatively estimated the real value of Agri at $2.4b, i.e. $500m less than the $2.94b implied by the transaction price of the 51% stake. The reality is worse. Agri is worth $1.5b+$700m=$2.2b and this is not even the final price since we need to deduct the subsidies (unknown amount).
Noble is expected to receive $700m-$750m in cash. This compares to a carrying value of around $1.25b for the Agri stake on the balance sheet in Q3. That means a projected loss of $500m-$550m for Q4. There is no reason to celebrate for Noble’s shareholders while this company is burning the furniture. Noble will try to reduce this loss with an earn out arrangement based on sugar price. This clause will be valued using a discounted cash flow model based on a commodity forward curve. If this sounds familiar, it’s normal. Noble uses the same methodology to value Yancoal and its commodity contracts fair values. As we know, no mountain is too high for the people in charge of valuing assets at Noble. We doubt this earn out will have any actual material value. Why would COFCO buy loss-making assets and leave the upside to the former owner while they are in a strong bargaining position? This would be a particularly bad proposal for a trader.
Once again, the same old accounting tricks are used by Noble: a few hundreds millions of additional fair values on the balance sheet and a shrinking list of saleable assets.
tradax The Sale of Noble Agri by the trader Noble Group is not a cash inflow, Noble has to mark down this asset by 671M, meanwhile the Noble Group will continue to carry its portion of the Noble Agri JV's debt on its balance sheet. This will be translated as a negative effect on the book value of Noble Group and will increase the asset leverage ratio of the trader.
tradax Moody's downgrades Noble Group to Ba1 (Junk); outlook negative
Global Credit Research-
Hong Kong, December 29, 2015 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded Noble Group Limited's senior unsecured bond ratings to Ba1 from Baa3 and the provisional rating on its senior unsecured MTN program to (P)Ba1 from (P)Baa3.
At the same time, Moody's has assigned a Ba1 corporate family rating to Noble and has therefore withdrawn the company's issuer rating.
The rating actions conclude Moody's review for downgrade initiated on 16 November 2015.
The outlook for the ratings is negative.
tradax SINGAPORE (Dec 30): Noble Group bonds fall as Moody's downgrades them to “junk” status, proving the commodities firm's recent asset sale to turnaround its finances fails to impress, says Dow Jones.
The company's 2018- and 2020-due bonds are down three points to 66 cents and 69 cents on the dollar, respectively.
“People have been hopeful that Noble might avoid a rating downgrade after the asset sale but it couldn’t,” said a Hong Kong-based credit trader at a Japanese investment bank.
The trader notes, though, there’s almost no transactions of the bond, mainly due to the holiday season.
The price decline largely reflects dealer quotes and bearish sentiment amid a difficult operating outlook for the company.
Standard & Poor's is likely to be next to cut Noble's rating to “junk” as the rating agency remains skeptical, even after Noble's move to raise US$750 million ($1.06 billion) by selling its remaining stake in Noble Agri.
tradax Noble Group’s “Collateral Margin Call”
The downgrade of Noble Group by Moody’s depicts an aggressive financial risk and a vulnerable business risk profile*
I) the first-order problem is Macro.
"The downgrade of Noble Group to sub-inv. is worrisome, but the main story is about the evolution of the commodity price downtrend. 1st round effects were felt in macro indicators (lower CapEx & growth for producers and following FX/interest rate adjustments). 2nd round effects will be about commodity exporters' governments reactions." Those effects will dominate in 2016 said Sacha Duparc, Head trader and structurer at Banque Cantonale Vaudoise.
II) Collateral margin call. The trader has billions of dollars in commodity prepays with NOCs and producers, the value of inventories and receivables collateralized by traders into trade finance arrangements have cratered in the past year.
This collateral value of Noble Group is being depressed, those loans are been called even if Noble Group (buoyed by liquidity in 2015) never missed a payment because the market says that Noble’s assets are worth less than they claim on their books.
Banks are requiring at least 1.6 B$ more in additional collateral that Noble Group hasn’t built over the good commodity years… Noble is being placed into either bankruptcy or they are been place in a tremendous economics adversity that so far they've not seen in 2015.
People have been hopeful that Noble might avoid a rating downgrade after the asset sale but it couldn’t,” said a Hong Kong-based credit trader at a Japanese investment bank.
Noble's move to raise US$750 million by selling its remaining stake in Noble Agri. I repeat what have said earlier in a previous comment: Noble Agri Sale was strictly a Collateral margin call.
Noble Group must raise money but their collateral base is new book value of 4,528 million while their Net Positive fair values gains of commodity contracts and derivatives exceeds MTM is over 4,500 million…
* Moody’s Global Credit Research - https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Noble-Group-to-Ba1-outlook-negative--PR_341857
By any model, this MTM represents between 90% and 105% of their book value.
Banks aren’t provided with the access of the exact breakout of the 4,500 million and PwC has not been able to review the exact assumptions and models behind these Net Positive fair values gains of commodity contracts and derivatives. Perhaps, Antoine Lavoisier, French nobleman of the 18th century and father of modern chemistry must have a great influence on the financial reporting of Asia’s Largest Commodity trader with "Nothing is lost, nothing is created, and everything is transformed".
Solvency Problem, not liquidity
I will make it clear that it is not Liquidity that banks are asking but for more Collateral from Noble starting this year because they also understand that this MTM gain on commodity contracts and derivatives of Noble will unlikely be realized at more than 10% and therefore is not valid collateral for the trader’s working capital borrowing base requirements.
A close friend hedgie in NY recalled me that at the height of 07', a IB sale desk lured them into "taking a position into undervalued trading books of the bank temporarily mispriced because of market illiquidity". At only 66cents on the Dollar, the deal turned-out to be 0.6 cent sinky.
文 / 祁月 2016年01月03日 18:40:24 14
尽管来宝集团被降级令人担忧，但这背后反映出的是大宗商品市场的颓靡，更是一种价格下行的趋势演变。据美国财经资讯网站jacquessimon506.wordpress，Banque Cantonale Vaudoise交易部门负责人Sacha Duparc认为，第一轮负面效应反映在宏观经济指标上（比如资本开支下滑）。第一轮负面效应将是大宗商品出口商对政策的反应。这些效应将主导2016年的市场。
noble chart 1_0
noble bv share.bmp__0
华尔街见闻提及，一家不知名的研究公司Iceberg Research在2015年2月发布研究报告称，来宝集团存在会计问题，存在财务造假、夸大利润的嫌疑，随后，美国浑水公司（Muddy Waters）也公开质疑来宝集团的财务实力，致使来宝股价承压，累计跌去2/3，成为新加坡海峡时报指数中年度跌幅最大的成分股。而在2015年8月份，普华永道则认为来宝的财报没有问题。
tradax Noble Group, Asia’s top commodity trader, has endured short selling attacks from the likes of Muddy Waters LLC and the anonymous Iceburg Research. With its stock value cut by over ¾ on a year over year basis, and bouncing near all-time lows, along comes a new report from Moody’s calling for a “collateral margin call.”
tradax Noble Group's "Margin Call" Part II: The Enron Moment http://wp.me/p3k7lL-40K
analyst77 Noble Group Faces Banking Stress Test
Noble Group’s fate now is in the hands of its bankers- WSJ
TruthOnly The user Tradax has been spreading unverified and baseless rumours on Noble. He has apologised to Noble for libel...part of letter extracted below.
- The user named “tradax” has unreservedly apologised to Noble and Mr Elman for any damage and/or loss of reputation and/or distress and embarrassment caused to them by these allegations.
- We have also banned the user named “tradax” from our website.
analyst77 Battered Noble Group May Be the 'Bargain of Decade'